Study On The Relationship Between Industrial Structure,Population Flow And Ratio Of House Price To Income In The Yellow River Basin

At present,China’s real estate industry is facing a new stage of transformation and development,and the housing market is facing problems such as regional market differentiation,high prices in some areas and land financial dependence.The Yellow River Basin is located in the core area of China’s population activities and economic development,which provides strong support for the overall development of the country and socialist modernization.However,the overall economic development level of the Yellow River Basin is not high,and there are great differences in the development of the housing market among different regions.The housing price level in some regions has risen significantly,which makes the ratio of house price to income too high.This will undoubtedly increase the pressure on residents to pay for housing,have a negative impact on social development,and also make the coordinated development of the Yellow River basin face great challenges.During the operation of the housing market,enterprises invest more in the secondary and tertiary industries.The upgrading of the industrial structure helps to improve the employment efficiency of enterprises and increase the income level of residents,which will promote the migration of the working population to a certain extent,thus causing the demand for housing of the floating population.At the same time,it will also enhance their housing payment ability and further promote the development of the housing market.In recent years,the housing price in the Yellow River Basin has risen significantly,and that of many cities has exceeded the increase in residents’ income.The increase in housing cost undoubtedly increases people’s living burden,hinders population inflow and depriving the region of talent base,which will further complicate the upgrading of industrial structure,which is not only detrimental to the coordinated economic development of the Yellow River Basin region.Also easy to cause social problems.At the same time,the development of industrial structure in the Yellow River Basin is relatively slow,and the difference of regional population flow is also significant,which makes it difficult to form a virtuous cycle of development.Therefore,it is necessary to re-examine the underlying logic of housing market development and further explore the relationship between the housing market in the Yellow River Basin and regional economic fundamentals such as regional industrial development and population flow.Under the background that the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin is included in the national strategy,this paper focuses on the high-quality development of the housing market in the Yellow River Basin,and takes the title of “Study on the Relationship between Industrial Structure,Population Flow and Ration of House Price to Income in the Yellow River Basin” as the research to study the relationship between the housing market,industrial structure and population flow in the Yellow River Basin.This will help to understand the effects of industrial structure,population flow and ratio of house price to income in the basin,and provide a reference for the high-quality development of the housing market in the Yellow River Basin.The research work of this paper is carried out from the following four aspects:Firstly,this paper reviews the previous relevant literature on the ratio of housing price to income,industrial structure and housing price,population flow and housing price,as well as industrial structure and population flow,and proposes innovative points through the review of previous studies.Secondly,the industrial structure,population flow and the ratio of house price to income are included in the same framework,and the relationship among them is explored from the theoretical level.Thirdly,Arcgis10.4software was then employed to illustrate the spatial-temporal evolution features of industrial structure,population flow and the ratio of house price to income in the Yellow River Basin.Finally,Using STATA17 software,the panel data of 59 cities in the Yellow River Basin spanning 2011 to 2020 was finally analyzed over the course of a decade.A PVAR was designed to systematically assess the correlations between the Yellow River Basin’s industrial structure,population flow,and the ratio of house price to income of the entire sample.Meanwhile,from the economic and social perspective,the whole sample was divided into two groups with different ratio of house price to income by SPSS software,and the heterogeneity analysis of the Yellow River Basin was carried out to explore the differences in the relationship between three variables among sub-sample.The paper draws the following conclusions: First,the upgrading of industrial structure is seen to have a significant restraining effect on the ratio of house price to income in the the Yellow River basin.The pressure of housing payment for residents can be alleviated by the upgrading of industrial structure.The increase of the ratio of house price to income and the upgrading of industrial structure will inhibit the population flow.Second,no significant correlation was revealed between the upgrading of industrial structure and the ratio of house price to income in the group with a high ratio,as evidenced by the results of heterogeneity analysis.The population flow has seen a marked rise in its detriment to the upgrading of industrial structure,as compared to the entire sample;moreover,the population flow has a considerable negative effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.The whole sample’s results are in agreement with the fact that industrial structure upgrading has a notably detrimental effect on the ratio of house price to income of the group with a low ratio.Population flow is detrimentally impacted by industrial structure upgrading.Third,a marked divergence is observed between the whole sample and the sub-sample in the correlation between public expenditure and industrial structure,population flow and the ratio of house price to income.The full sample reveals that public expenditure has a significant negative effect on population flow.The ratio of house price to income has a restraining effect on public expenditure.Industrial structure is significantly enhanced by public expenditure in those households with a high ratio of house price to income.Population flow is impeded by public expenditure in the group with a low ratio.The paper puts forward with four proposals: it is suggested that government give full play to the local industrial systems,promote the upgrading and optimization of industrial structure,introduce relevant welfare policies to increase the willingness of the floating population to stay,reasonably regulate housing prices to ease the housing pressure of the floating population and improve the government’s ability to provide public services and improve the public service system.