The Influence Of Chinese Population Aging On Two Stages Of Technological Innovation Is Studied

The issue of ageing has long-term significance in the international community,and its impact runs through all aspects of a country’s development.China’s economy has entered a "new normal",and the focus of development has shifted from high speed to high quality.As a factor of economic vitality,technological innovation has played an important leading role in the country’s economic development,so it is necessary to further promote the innovation-driven development strategy.In the context of the deepening aging of the population and the central position of innovation in the overall development situation,aging is bound to bring challenges and opportunities to technological innovation.Studying the influence of population aging on technological innovation has great theoretical and practical significance for promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy and accelerating the construction of an innovative country.Based on the innovation value chain theory,this paper divides the technological innovation process into two stages: technology research and development and product transformation,and uses the relevant data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions except Tibet from 2000 to 2020 to empirically study the influence of population aging in the two stages.In the benchmark regression analysis,the hybrid OLS model,fixed effect model and systematic GMM model were used to study the impact of population aging on the two stages of technological innovation,and the impact mechanism analysis was carried out in the next step to test the influence of human capital effect,factor forcing effect and pension burden effect on technology research and development and product transformation,and then the tail reduction method and substitution variable method were used to test the robustness of the empirical results,so that the empirical process was more rigorous and the conclusions were more authentic and credible.Further analysis of regional heterogeneity studies the impact of population aging on technology R&D and product transformation in the eastern,central and western regions.Finally,on the basis of analysis and evidence,combined with the actual situation in China,the policy suggestions for technological innovation and development are put forward to adapt to the trend of population aging.Based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical testing,this paper concludes that(1)in the stage of technology research and development and product transformation,population aging has a significant inverted "U" impact on technological innovation,and the old-age dependency ratio that reaches the critical value of the inflection point in the technology research and development stage is21.75%,except for Liaoning Province,Shanghai City,Jiangsu Province,Anhui Province,Shandong Province,Hunan Province,Chongqing City,and Sichuan Province,other regions are still in the stage of positive impact of population aging on technology research and development;The old-age dependency ratio that reached the critical value of the inflection point in the product transformation stage was 18.93%,except for Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Guizhou Province,Yunnan Province,Gansu Province,Qinghai Province,Ningxia and Xinjiang,other regions were already in the stage of negative impact of population aging on product transformation.(2)Population aging will have a significant negative impact on technological innovation in the technology research and development stage and product transformation stage through the "human capital effect",positive impact on technological innovation in the technology development and product transformation stage through the "factor forcing effect",and the "pension burden effect" has a significant negative impact on technological innovation in the technology research and development stage,but the inhibition effect is not significant in the product transformation stage.(3)In the stage of technology research and development,the aging population in the eastern region has a significant positive "U" impact on technological innovation,and the eastern region except Guangdong Province is in the stage of positive impact of population aging on technological innovation.The contribution of this paper is as follows:(1)It enriches the research on the impact of population aging on economic and social development and the research on the influencing factors of technological innovation,and stimulates people’s sense of innovation.(2)Drawing on the two-stage innovation value chain theory,technological innovation is divided into two stages,technology research and development and product transformation,and they are studied and analyzed separately,so as to enrich the perspective of technological innovation research on the impact of population aging,and at the same time make the research targeted.(3)Using multiple measurement methods,the role of population aging in the two stages of technological innovation process was empirically investigated,the internal mechanism of the two roles was clarified,and the heterogeneity of regions was analyzed,the research area was refined,and the empirical results were verified by multiple tests to make the conclusions more rigorous and convincing.