| At present,most countries in the world are facing a severe problem of population aging.Population aging is not only an economic problem,but also a social problem.What impact does it have on technological innovation?According to the past theoretical literature analysis,population aging has positive and negative effects on scientific and technological innovation,and with the gradual deepening of the degree of population aging,the impact of these two aspects shows fluctuating changes.Overall,the impact of population aging on science and technology innovation shows an inverted U-shaped trend,that is,with the increase of population aging,the level of technology innovation shows a changing trend of rising first and then declining.Based on the panel data of 64 countries from 1991 to 2017 for 27 years,this paper makes an empirical study by using the fixed effect regression model.Research shows that population aging has an inverted U-shaped effect on technological innovation.When the degree of population aging is less than the critical value,population aging can promote the output of technological innovation.But when the degree of population aging is higher than the critical value,population aging will inhibit the output of technological innovation.After empirical calculation,the critical value of population aging degree is 19.49.Research shows that the population aging degree of most developed countries has exceeded the threshold,and that of a small number of developing countries has exceeded the threshold,facing the problem of aging before getting rich.Further,by adding virtual variable analysis,the types of countries have a significant impact on the degree of scientific and technological innovation.Therefore,when classifying the developed and developing countries,we find that the critical value of population aging in developing countries is 16.66 much lower than that in developed countries,23.03,which proves that although most of the developing countries do not have the same degree of population aging,the critical value of population aging in developing countries is 16.66 much lower than that in developed countries.Higher,but lower thresholds will enable them to meet faster the inhibiting effect of population aging on technological innovation.Therefore,the impact of aging on scientific and technological innovation should not be underestimated,and attention should be paid to all countries.Governments should actively adopt effective and reasonable policies to reduce the inhibiting effect of population aging on scientific and technological innovation.In the robustness test,the inverted U-shaped conclusions of population aging and technological innovation are further validated by GMM analysis,changing measurement variables and changing to random effects.Promoting economic development,increasing per capital GDP,fertility and urbanization rates will have a positive impact on technological innovation,but increasing unemployment rate will all have a negative impact on technological innovation,which is caused by the reduction of human capital.Generally speaking,the current imports of goods and services and foreign direct investment will have a restraining effect on technological innovation,but the impact on developed and developing countries is different:The developed countries will quickly transform imported science and technology into their own scientific and technological innovation ability because of their higher learning ability and technological level,thus bringing about scientific and technological output,while the developing countries will absorb new knowledge slowly because of their own technological limitations and insufficient knowledge reserves,thus inhibiting the current scientific and technological innovation.However,from the dynamic point of view,both imports of goods and services and foreign direct investment in the previous period have had a positive impact on the current scientific and technological innovation,so in the long run,imports of goods and services are beneficial to scientific and technological innovation. |
