Population Aging,Technological Innovation And Upgrading Of Manufacturing Structure

As China’s economy shifts from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage,the manufacturing structure needs to match economic development.Optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure and promoting the upgrading of the manufacturing structure are the key links for high-quality economic development.At the same time,demographic changes and the ageing of the population have continued to increase,leading to a decline in the size of China ’s working-age population and an increase in labor costs,which may cause the development of China ’s manufacturing industry to fall into a certain predicament.On the other hand,technological innovation is the core driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,but the level of technological innovation will be affected to some extent by the transformation of the population structure,especially the aging of the population.Therefore,an in-depth analysis of the relationship between population aging,technological innovation,and the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure is of great theoretical value and practical significance to China,which realizes high-quality economic development and a well-off society in an all-round way.First,through the induction of economic theory and mathematical derivation,this article draws a preliminary conclusion that both the aging of the population and technological innovation are conducive to the upgrading of the manufacturing structure;secondly,the current situation of China’s population aging,technological innovation,and manufacturing development is described and analysis.Next,considering that the current research on the effect of population aging on technological innovation has not yet formed a unified view,this paper uses a system of generalized moment estimation models to analyze the relationship between the two.As a result,it is found that the level of population aging and technological innovation in China There is a “U”-type relationship,that is,there will be a certain obstacle to technological innovation in the early stage of population aging.When the population aging reaches a certain threshold,it can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure.Finally,using the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2016,the fixed effects model,the system generalized moment estimation model,and the spatial Dubin model were used to analyze the direct impact of population aging and technological innovation on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure.The model verifies whether the aging population has an indirect impact on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure through technological innovation.The results show that:(1)there is a significant spatial autocorrelation in population aging,technological innovation and manufacturing structure upgrade;(2)whether it is from the static panel regression model and the generalized moment estimation model of the dynamic system or the analysis result of the spatial econometric model It can be seen that both population aging and technological innovation can actively promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure;(3)The impact of technological innovation on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure has obvious double threshold effects of aging.When aging is used as the threshold variable,technology The impact of innovation on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure has a positive trend of rising first and then decreasing.Therefore,based on the previous theoretical and empirical analysis results,and combined with the current situation in China,we propose policy recommendations: improve the old-age security system,develop the consumption potential of the elderly,and actively develop high-end elderly industries;increase human capital investment,and strengthen the training mechanism for scientific and technological personnel;Fully develop the resources of the elderly and encourage retirees to re-employ.