Spatial And Temporal Pattern Of Population Aging In China And Its Impact On The Heterogeneity Of Science And Technology Innovation

In the 21 st century,about 100 countries and regions have entered the stage of population aging in succession.Population aging has become a common trend of human social development.The aging of population will have an important impact on many aspects like society,economy and culture.For example,the aging of population structure will directly lead to the decline of labor supply,affect the level of human capital,and further affects technological innovation.China is no exception.The aging process is accelerating.How to have an effect on population aging has become a "must answer" in China’s economic development and modernization process.This paper chooses China’s provinces as the study area,analyses the characteristics of the aging population and the space-time pattern of technological innovation,and explores the impact of aging population on technological innovation and its mechanism from the perspective of heterogeneity.The logical process of this study is as follows: Firstly,summarizing the literature and theory on the negative and positive effects of aging population on technological innovation,as well as the non-linear and structural effects.Analyzing and making hypotheses on the mechanism of the impact of aging population on technological innovation.Constructing the theoretical basis of this article;Secondly,using the entropy weight method to construct a comprehensive evaluation system of technological innovation from three aspects: input,output and basis of technological innovation,and calculating it.Analyzing the characteristics of the space-time pattern of the aging population and the development of technological innovation in China’s provinces.Thirdly,the paper builds general panel model,spatial panel measurement model and threshold panel model to empirically study the heterogeneity effect of aging population on technological innovation in different regions,time,level of technological innovation,level of urbanization development and spatial spillover effect.The results show that,firstly,the aging process in China has been accelerating since the beginning of this century,the transition from adult to elderly has been completed,and the level of technological innovation has been significantly improved.At the same time,the disparity in the degree of aging and the level of technological development in each province has been widening gradually,and the distribution among regions is quite uneven.Secondly,the aging of population has a significant inverted U-shaped effect on technological innovation and spatial spillover effect.With the increasing aging of the population,the level of technological innovation first rises and then decreases.Thirdly,the aging of population has a significant impact on the heterogeneity of technological innovation.In different regions,the inhibiting effect of aging population on technological innovation will appear earlier in the eastern region than in the central region.In different time periods,the impact of aging population on technological innovation is not significant in 2001-2011,but the impact of aging population on technological innovation in 2012-2020 has changed to a significant inhibition.In terms of different urbanization rates,under the higher urbanization rate,the positive effect of aging population on technological innovation has been improved.