The Influence Of Population Aging On Manufacturing TFP In China

With the accelerated process of population aging,its impact on social productivity has become impossible to ignore.As the foundation of the country,manufacturing plays a vital role in China’s economic development.At the same time,the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized that China’s economic growth can no longer rely on factor input,but should be transformed into a productivity-driven approach.Facing the disappearance of the "demographic dividend",China’s manufacturing industry must achieve technological progress through technological innovation to maintain its own competitiveness.Therefore,it is of great significance to clarify how population aging affects the total factor productivity of manufacturing by affecting technological innovation.This paper uses the data of listed Chinese manufacturing companies and Chinese provincial data from 2008 to 2019 for analysis.Based on the research on the status quo and mechanism,this paper uses a fixed-effect model to test the nonlinear impact of population aging on China’s manufacturing total factor productivity and the mediating role of technological innovation,and finally puts forward relevant policy recommendations for the research conclusions.The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first,to discover the nonlinear impact of population aging on China’s manufacturing TFP;second,to explore the mediating role of technological innovation between population aging and manufacturing TFP;third In order to find out that different regions,different degrees of aging,different property rights of enterprises,and different types of manufacturing industries will all have an impact on the relationship between population aging and manufacturing total factor productivity.The specific research conclusion of this paper is that population aging has a nonlinear impact on manufacturing total factor productivity,that is,with the increase of aging degree,its impact on manufacturing total factor shows a trend of first promoting and then inhibiting.And from the perspective of the intermediary effect of technological innovation,the aging of the population will promote the output of technological innovation through the reverse force mechanism,which will have a positive impact on the improvement of the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry.It has a negative effect on the output of technological innovation,thereby inhibiting the growth of manufacturing total factor productivity.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes to strengthen the construction of education and culture,improve the quality of labor force;establish a sound medical care system to reduce the burden of old-age care;create a good innovation ecology to encourage enterprises to carry out technological innovation;implement a flexible retirement system to encourage retired employees to re-employ It is recommended to provide certain help for the government and enterprises to cope with the impact of population aging.