| The change of housing price is closely related to the growth and shrinkage of urban population.In recent years,with the continuous differentiation of China’s urban population development trajectory,the difference of housing price in different cities has become increasingly obvious,which has been widely concerned.Case studies in developed countries showed that the growth and shrinkage of urban population usually have asymmetric effects on the housing price.However,it is not clear how the change of urban population size affects the housing price in China.This study analyzed the response characteristics of housing prices in 35 cities at prefecture level and above in Northeast China under different population trends since 1999 and revealed the impact of urban population growth and shrinkage on housing prices.This paper verified whether the growth and shrinkage of urban population have asymmetric influence on the price of housing and analyzed the causes and the control measures according to the unique social and economic development background of China.The results further enrich the differentiation characteristics and cause explanations of the asymmetric influence of urban population size on housing price and provide scientific reference for the regulation of urban housing price under the different population trends in Northeast China.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From the perspective of the coupling relationship between the change of urban population and the price of commercial housing in the Northeast China during the study period,the change rate of urban population in the Northeast China has been lower than the national average level,with obvious stage characteristics,experiencing the growth from 1999 to 2009 and the contraction from 2009 to 2019,and the overall change process presents an inverted "U" shape.The spatial distribution pattern of urban population is relatively stable.The growth of urban population in the former stage is mainly concentrated in non-resource-based cities,while the contraction in the latter stage is mainly from resource-based cities.During the same period,the housing price in the Northeast China increased significantly,the growth rate was first fast and then slow,and the regional heterogeneity was obvious,with the inter-provincial difference that Liaoning province was higher than other two provinces,the type of difference that non-resource-based cities were higher than resource-based cities,and the grade difference that the four core cities kept the high price of commercial housing.After2014,the variation of commodity housing price has become increasingly obvious.Most cities still maintain growth,but some cities,mainly resource-based cities,have a significant downward trend of housing price under the background of urban population contraction.Therefore,the coupling relationship between urban population growth and housing price increased significantly to urban population contraction and commodity house price increased slowly.However,after 2014,the coupling pattern of urban population and housing price decline became more and more common in the Northeast China,and mainly occurred in resource-based cities.(2)From the perspective of the asymmetric test results of urban population size on housing price in the Northeastern provinces,the asymmetric impact of urban population change on commodity house price is not universal in the three northeastern provinces,and the change of commodity house price is more influenced by other supply and demand factors in the commodity house market.This asymmetric impact shows that the urban population growth has no significant impact on the commodity housing price in the Northeast China,while the impact of the urban population contraction on the housing price is phased,only occurring from 2014 to 2019,and mainly in resourcebased cities.Spatially,the asymmetric impact of urban population changes on housing prices in Heilongjiang province began to appear in 2009,while in the other two provinces,the response was relatively sluggish after 2014.Among them,the negative impact of urban population contraction on housing prices in Heilongjiang province shows a downward trend,which is due to the high attention and active regulation of Heilongjiang provincial government to a certain extent.(3)From the perspective of the mechanism of the impact of urban population change on the asymmetry of housing price in the Northeast China,the reason why urban population growth has no significant impact on housing price is that the growth of urban population is highly concentrated in a few cities during the study period,and the demand driving effect of most cities is limited.Secondly,the overall growth rate of urban population is small,and its driving effect on housing price is covered by the influence of other demand-side factors that grow faster in the same period.In addition,the commodity housing market has a strong supply capacity,which can timely meet the demand for housing brought by the growth of urban population,so that the growth of urban population cannot significantly promote the growth of housing prices.And urban population contract of commodity house prices of the impact of periodic reasons,one is accumulation of the contraction intensity and scale of the urban population,not only causes the rigid demand contraction,will drive the part falling demand side factors and supply side factors of adaptive adjustment,the resulting supply and demand factors of commodity house prices pull ability weakened;Second,the growth of demand side factors is slow,the demand loss caused by the contraction of urban population is difficult to be bridged by other factors,resulting in the contraction of commercial housing market demand;The third is the mismatch of supply and demand in the commodity housing market.In the face of the contraction of urban population,it is difficult for the commodity housing market to adjust the supply in time due to the durable property of housing,and elastic failure occurs to a certain extent.At the same time,there is even a phenomenon of continuous growth in the supply of commodity housing in the Northeast China due to the contraction of urban population.On the contrary,when the contraction of urban population is short and small in scale and degree,and other supply and demand factors are still driving the growth of housing price,the negative impact of urban population contraction on housing price may be offset or difficult to reflect.(4)The regulation and control of house price in the Northeast China should be combined with comprehensive consideration of the development conditions and limitations of urban commodity house market and should be cautious of its possible negative impact on house price under the background of urban population shrinking nearly all over the world.Based on this,the following regulation suggestions are put forward for different types of cities.“Cities with double increase of urban population and house price” should strictly supervise the process of land transfer and property subject behavior to guide the housing price to return to a reasonable range.“Cities with urban population growth and declining housing price” should guard against the continuous decline of housing price under the condition of imbalance between supply and demand,so the key point of regulation and control is to excavate market demand and improve supply structure.“Cities with double decrease of urban population and house price” should pay more attention to urban regulation and control to prevent the impact of the continuous loss of urban population on the supply and demand relationship of commercial housing market,so they should accelerate the digestion and utilization of the stock of commercial housing and strictly control the market supply.“Cities with urban population shrinking and increasing housing price” need to guard against the potential negative effects of continuous urban population shrinking.Therefore,a supply and demand detection mechanism of commodity housing market should be established to grasp the real time dynamics of commodity housing market. |
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