Research On The Impact Of Population Structure Change On Housing Price-rent Ratio In The Period Of New Urbanization Transition

Since China's reform of the housing market in 1998,housing prices have been rising year after year while rental prices have been rising slowly.With the constant increase in the ratio of housing prices to rents,China's property bubble has become prominent.It is also during this period that China's urbanization is transforming from a stage of rapid urbanization to the new type of urbanization.New changes are taking place in China's population age structure,population socio-economic structure and population regional structure,thus contributing to the change of the ratio of housing prices to rents.Based on the perspective of regional economics,this paper studies the impact of population structure changes on the ratio of housing prices to rents during the transition period of the new-type urbanization from 2008 to 2016.First,based on the consumer utility function,a theoretical model of the impact of the changes of demographic structure on the ratio of housing prices to rents is constructed.Secondly,according to the inferences of the theoretical model,the indicators are selected,and the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2008 to 2017 are used to empirically test the theoretical conjecture based on the SUR regression model.Thirdly,35 large and medium-sized cities in China are divided into regions according to the eastern,central and western cities,and the first-order difference GMM regression model based on the dynamic panel is used to test the regional differences of the impact of population structure changes on the ratio of housing prices to rents.Finally,according to theoretical deduction and empirical test,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)the increase of juvenile dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio will increase the housing price-rent ratio;(2)the expansion of social income gap in China will lead to the rise of housing price-rent ratio,while the increase of the proportion of employees in secondary and tertiary industries will reduce the housing price-rent ratio;(3)the increase of urbanization rate will lead to the rise of housing price and rent,and most importantly Finally,the ratio of house price to rent will be increased.According to the conclusion of theoretical deduction and empirical test,from the perspective of population age structure(Implement the loose population policy to encourage childbearing;Develop real estate for the aged and services for the aged),the social and economic structure of the population(Improve the social security system and promote the reduction of the social wealth gap;Reasonably promote the industrial gradient transfer between regions and increase the proportion of employees in the secondary and the tertiary industries in the whole society.),the regional structure of the population(Combine with the process of the new-type urbanization to promote "equal rights for home tenants and owners")and the real estate industry itself(Establish and improve the basic housing system and the long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market).