| A proper balance between population structure and industrial structure is a prerequisite for healthy economic development.At present,Chongqing is in the deep aging society form,aging development situation is very severe.At the same time,in this context,compared with the domestic developed provinces,Chongqing’s industrial structure has a great deficiency,which needs further adjustment.The deepening of aging will have many influences on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.On the one hand,aging will cause the phenomenon such as the number of elderly people increasing year by year and the continuous disappearance of demographic dividend,which will lead to the decline of labor endowment in Chongqing,thus adversely affecting labor productivity and hindering the upgrading of industrial structure.On the other hand,it has brought new economic growth points.The demand of the elderly for medical and health care services should be greater than that of the population of other age groups,injecting new vitality into the development of the tertiary industry and improving the current industrial structure.Therefore,this paper studies the impact of population aging on the industrial structure of Chongqing,aiming at discussing how to optimize the industrial structure of Chongqing under the current situation.This paper carries out research according to the following ideas: Firstly,summarize the basic concepts of population aging and industrial structure,explain the factors that affect the industrial structure and the mechanism of aging on the industrial structure;then,this paper analyzes the development status of Chongqing’s aging population from various aspects,compares Chongqing’s industrial structure with that of the developed areas in China,and expounds the evolution of Chongqing’s industrial structure from2001 to 2020 to analyze the status quo of Chongqing’s industrial structure;In addition,the selected required indicators and corresponding data through a variety of testing methods,the construction of multivariate vector autoregression(VAR)model,from the rationalization and high-level two perspectives of Chongqing aging population impact on the direction and degree of industrial structure change;Finally,summarize the main conclusions of this paper and put forward relevant suggestions on the actual situation of Chongqing.The results show that in the long run: In the long run,the aging population has a slow and lasting impact on the industrial structure,and presents different effects.It makes the industrial production structure of Chongqing can’t be coupled with the employment structure,and the process of industrial structure rationalization is hindered and deviates from the equilibrium state.But it will promote the development of the tertiary industry,so that the industrial structure to the internationally recognized ideal model of "321" type development,promote the industrial structure tends to advanced.Based on the above results,suggestions are put forward as follows:(1)strengthen efforts to optimize the population structure and slow down the aging development process;(2)Make full use of the elderly population resources to alleviate the shortage of labor supply;(3)Develop industries for the aged and optimize the industrial structure. |
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