Study On The Spatial Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of The Scale Of Drug Users Involved In Criminal Activities In Hong Kong

Throughout the "Report on the Drug Situation in China" in recent years,the scale of drug users in China has declined,and some results have been achieved in the control of drug abuse,but the scale of drug users is still very large.And the proportion of criminal cases caused by drug users account for criminal cases in the same period is over 10%.Such a large group of drug users has brought serious harm to the social order of our country.In this context,this paper conducts relevant research on the scale of drug users involved in criminal activities.This paper takes the scale of drug users involved in criminal activities in 18 regions of Hong Kong from 1987 to 2014 as an empirical research object.Firstly,this paper uses descriptive analysis to analyze its demographic characteristics and time trend.It is concluded that the scale of drug users involved in criminal activities in Hong Kong showed a downward trend in the past 28 years.The participation of drug users in criminal activities has gradually improved.In addition,the number of drug users involved in criminal activities is male mainly,and most of them are 18-59 years old,they also show the characteristics of unemployed,low education and low income.These characteristics provide the basis for the following construction of spatial econometric model to select independent variables.Then,we can see that the geographical distribution of the scale of drug users involved in criminal activities shows certain aggregation characteristics.Therefore,global and local spatial autocorrelation tests were used to analyze whether there is spatial autocorrelation effect in the scale of drug users involved in criminal activities.The results show that there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the scale of drug users involved in criminal activities,and it takes on a trend of first falling and then rising.And Kowloon Peninsula is at HH area while Island District is at LL area.Finally,in order to study the dynamic heterogeneity of the data,a spatial lag panel data model and a B-spline spatial SUR model for the scale of drug addicts participating in criminal activities are constructed,then compare and analyze the estimation results of two models.The results show that the increase in the number of drug users and the proportion of unemployed and part-time workers among drug users have promoted the scale of drug users involved in criminal activities,while the increase in the proportion of senior middle school and above among drug users has an inhibitory effect;moreover,B-spline spatial SUR model’s fitting ability is better,and the calculation cost is lower.