The Spatial Changes Of Population Aging And Its Influencing Factors In The Upper Yangtze River Economic Zone

With the continuous development of social economy,the average life expectancy of the population continues to increase,the birth rate and death rate of the population continue to decline,and the current situation of China’s population aging is becoming more and more severe.The upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Area,as the upper reaches of my country’s first inland river economic Area,has entered a population aging society for about 18 years.At present,the overall society is rapidly transforming into a deep population aging.This article uses the aging rate as a basic research indicator which selects from the 2000 and 2010 census data and the 2005 and 2015’s 1% population sample survey data,then using the population center of gravity model,standard deviation ellipse,semi-variogram and spatial auto-correlation methods to explore the development stage,spatial distribution pattern,spatial variability and correlation of population aging in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Area.Then we constructed an indicator system for the influencing factors of population aging whose data come from the statistical yearbooks of Yunnan,Guizhou,Sichuan and Chongqing,the statistical bulletins of national economic and social development of prefecture-level cities,and the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Finally,the influencing factors of regional population aging are discussed in depth through geographic detectors and geographic weighted regression methods.The research results show that :(1)The population aging in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Area shows the characteristics of high in the northeast and low in the surrounding areas,and the aging of the population continues to deepen over time.The spatial change pattern of population aging basically shows the characteristics of high in the northeast,and low in the west and south in the three different time periods.(2)The population aging center of gravity in the region roughly extends and shifts in the northeast direction,and its center of gravity is getting closer and closer to the depth area of population aging(in Sichuan Basin).The standard deviation ellipse of the aging coefficient basically shows a northeastsouthwest trend,and the area range tends to be stable in fluctuation.The standard deviation ellipse of the variable aging coefficient in different time periods also shows a northeast-southwest trend,but the center coordinates are obviously more north and east than the aging coefficient in different years,and the area range increases with time.(3)The population aging of the 47 cities in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Area has a significant positive global spatial auto-correlation,and the overall trend of agglomeration is increasing.The gap between regions is gradually increasing.We find that the spatial difference in the level of population aging in the southeast-northwest direction is the largest,indicating that the variation in this direction has the highest contribution to the expansion of the regional population aging difference.(4)In the results of the geographic detector,the detection of the population aging factor shows that the birth rate,the proportion of ethnic minorities,the density of the river network and the topographic undulation are important factors affecting the aging in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Area.Other factors have different effects in different years.In the analysis results of the GWR model,the birth rate,the proportion of ethnic minorities,the average years of education,per capita GDP,and topographical fluctuations have obvious spatial differences in the degree and direction of population aging in different regions.The birth rate,the proportion of ethnic minorities ratio and topographic undulation have a negative inhibitory effect on the aging of the population,while the average years of education have a positive boost to the aging of the population,and the per capita GDP performance is relatively complicated.Finally,based on the research conclusions of this article,the corresponding population aging policy recommendations are put forward.