Spatial Distribution Patterns And Influencing Factors Of Pension Pressure In Provinces Of China

The improvement of health care and living standards of people in China has aggravated the deterioration of the aging population.The problem of providing for the aged has become a livelihood issue of great concern to the society.The heavy pressure of providing for the aged not only restricts the development of the national pension cause,but also adversely affects the economic and social development However,the geographic distribution of aging degree and endowment resources in China is uneven,and the regional migration of the age-appropriate employment population results in significant regional differences in endowment pressure.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study and predict the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of pension pressure in China and explore the influencing factors behind it so as to fully understand the regional differences and evolutionary trends of pension pressure and formulate corresponding pension policies in different regions.First of all,this paper defines the concept of pension pressure standing on the employment population.Secondly,we select the data of pension pressure from 1995 to 2016,compare pension pressure in different provinces visually based on software of ArcGIS 10.5.The differences of pension pressure and its contribution rate between regions are calculated by using Theil index.Then,spatial autocorrelation and standard deviation ellipse are used to study the spatial distribution pattern of pension pressure in China,i.e.spatial agglomeration and spatial evolution characteristics.On this basis,combining with GM(1,1)model,the spatial distribution pattern of pension pressure is dynamically predicted.Finally,we validate the anomalous distribution characteristics of the pension pressure data from 2000 to 2016,and construct the skew-normal panel data model to explore the influencing factors and the intensity of action behind it,and compare with the results of the normal panel data model.The results show that the pension pressure in China is mainly concentrated in the north of the east,Sichuan and Chongqing in the west,showing a slow upward trend as a whole.The regional differences of pension pressure mainly come from regional differences,which are concentrated in the eastern and western regions.And there is no spatial agglomeration of pension pressure in the global region,but there is spatial agglomeration in the local region,which has the general pattern characteristics of agglomerative spatial distribution,mainly in the East-West direction,supplemented by the North-South direction.In the future,the overall distribution pattern of pension pressure in China will shift from "Northeast-Southwest" to "North-South",and the overall pattern will basically stabilize.As far as the influencing factors are concerned,the aging population and the level of health care have positive effects on the pension pressure,while the economic development level,the natural growth of population,the level of education development,the level of urbanization and the immigration of population have negative effects on the pension pressure.Finally,combining with the research findings,this paper puts forward specific countermeasures and suggestions for alleviating the pension pressure.