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Research On The Military Scientific And Technological Achievements To Civil-use Transformation Risk Assessment

Posted on:2023-01-24Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y J ZhongFull Text:PDF
GTID:2556306791481324Subject:Information Science
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
On March 12,2018,President Xi Jinping attended the First Session of the Thirteenth National People’s Congress PLA and the People’s Armed Police Forces Conference and said,"Strengthen national defense scientific and technological innovation,build a military integrated innovation system,improve the independent innovation capability of national defense science and technology".The transfer of science and technology to civil-use is an important realization of the integration of technology and military technology.In recent years,military has stopped paid services,due to the special nature of military units,military to civilian scientific and technological achievements transformation activities has faced some risks such as loss of state-owned assets,leakage of military secrets,and management policy constraints,and the risks are impossible to accurately identify and measure,which has seriously hindered the process of transferring military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use and the pace of military scientific and technological innovation.In view of this,this paper takes the risk of military scientific and technological achievements transferred to civil-use as the specific research object,uses the methods of information science to design the risk assessment index system and model,and carried out the "recombinant new coronavirus vaccine" case study,and specific strategies are put forward to effectively avoid and control the risk of transferring military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use according to the evaluation results,in order to promote the development of military scientific and technological achievements for civil-use and improve the efficiency and benefit of the transfer of achievements to civil-use.According to the research process and main line of intelligence conception,intelligence collection and analysis,intelligence discovery and intelligence application,this paper mainly carries out the following research:First,make an overall plan for the risk assessment of the transfer of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use.This paper introduces the research background and significance of this paper,analyzes and summarizes the research status at home and abroad,defines the relevant concepts of this paper,clarifies the research scope of this paper,analyzes the key issues of constructing the risk assessment index system of military scientific and technological achievements for civil-use,and proposes corresponding solutions.The main tasks of the project are decomposed into six key parts:identifying potential risks,selecting indicators used in the evaluation model,determining the weights of indicators,constructing a risk assessment model for the transfer of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use,empirically testing the evaluation model,and proposing risk control strategies.Second,it discusses in detail the theoretical basis of risk assessment of military scientific and technological achievements for civil-use,and identifies risk factors and determines assessment indicators.It is mainly divided into two parts,one is to introduce and expound the relevant concepts and theoretical basis of this research.The concept connotation is defined from the two aspects of the transformation of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use and risk assessment,and the relevant theories of the transformation of scientific and technological achievements of the military and the theoretical basis for the transformation of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use are discussed.On this basis,it focuses on building a system operation model for the transfer of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use,which consists of five subsystems: the achievement holder system,the demander system,the management system,the environment system,and the service support system.At the same time,it systematically sorts out the relevant methods and technologies of risk management,and introduces the technical models of mainstream risk identification and assessment.The second is the determination of risk indicators for the transfer of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use.To clarify the principles,methods and basic processes of index selection,first,use the literature analysis method to statistically analyze the risk categories and factors in the literature of achievement transformation.Secondly,the transformation process of 46 cases was analyzed to find out 23 obstacles that restrict the transfer of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use.Based on the operation system of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use,risk types and factors were identified from the dimension of participation elements,and 29 risk assessment indicators were initially formed..Then through the Delphi method,combined with the two rounds of centralized review opinions of seven experts in the transformation of scientific and technological achievements,34 risk assessment indicators in 7 categories were finally determined.Third,build a risk assessment model for the transfer of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use.By comparing the advantages,disadvantages and applicability of the current mainstream evaluation methods,it is found that the combination of AHP,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and group decision-making algorithm can maximize the use of experts when there are relatively many indicators and a certain amount of sample data.Experience and knowledge,while ensuring objective and effective risk assessment results.First,using the form of questionnaire survey,select35 experts and scholars in the field of military scientific and technological achievements to be transferred to the civilian field,and score the importance of risk indicators in pairs.The weights of the indicators are determined by using the analytic hierarchy process and the group decision-making data aggregation algorithm respectively,and combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The algorithm builds a corresponding risk assessment model for the transfer of military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use.Fourth,empirically analyze the case of "recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine",and propose risk control strategies based on the risk assessment results.Select 35 experts in the field of scientific and technological achievements to score the risk level of specific cases.Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the risk degree of the "recombinant new coronavirus vaccine" case,it is concluded that the risk value of the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine case is 1.6621,and the risk of transferring to civil-use is at a medium and low level,that is,the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine is successful.transform.Therefore,the feasibility of transferring the military scientific and technological achievements to the civilian risk assessment model is verified.Fifth,according to the case evaluation results,from the perspective of the military actively promoting the implementation of transformation and minimizing the risk concerns of the demand side,it analyzes and proposes specific strategies to effectively control and avoid the risk of the military to civilian technological achievements transformation.
Keywords/Search Tags:Military scientific and technological achievements to civil-use, Risk assessment, Analytic hierarchy process, Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Risk strategy
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