Spatial And Temporal Variations In The Matching Of Supply And Demand Of Pension Resources In The Yellow River Basin And Their Influencing Factors

According to the 7th National Census in 2021,the number of people aged 65 and above reached 260 million,and China is expected to enter the stage of moderate aging by the end of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.At present,China’s elderly population is large,and the rate of population aging is accelerating,and the overall health condition is poor,which brings many social problems,such as labor shortage due to population aging,limited socio-economic development,increased burden of old-age security,increased health care expenditure,and increased difficulty of social governance,etc.,among which the more prominent is the problem of matching the supply and demand of old-age resources.Based on this,this study constructs an index system of elderly resources supply and demand,analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of elderly resources supply and demand and matching in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to2020,and uses a geographically weighted regression model(GWR)and a geographic detector to analyze its influencing factors.The research results show that:(1)The demand and supply of senior care resources in the Yellow River Basin show a spatial distribution pattern of high in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and low in the middle and upper reaches,and change continuously with the years 2000,2010 and 2020.The elderly population,consumption expenditure,demand for resource use and supply of senior care institutions,medical institutions,social security and sports and leisure show obvious clustering characteristics and regional divergence,there are differences in periods.(2)The supply and demand of elderly resources in both urban and rural areas show a spatial distribution pattern of high in the downstream and low in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin as a whole,but there are large differences in the overall supply and demand index values and local prefecture-level cities,and the urban and rural differences in the demand and supply indices of elderly resources show an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020.(3)The overall distribution pattern of matching the supply and demand of senior care resources in the Yellow River Basin shows that the supply and demand matching index is high in the upper and lower reaches and low in the middle reaches,and the supply and demand matching index in some prefecture-level cities slightly increases and decreases with time.Among the matching types,the highest proportion is high demand-low supply type,the number of cities with high demand-high supply and low demand-high supply remains basically unchanged,high demand-low supply type increases slightly,and low demand-low supply type increases first and then decreases.The supply-demand difference values of elderly resources total two types,the supply is greater than the demand in the middle reaches of the Yellow River,the supply is less than the demand in the upper and lower reaches of the Yellow River,and the supply is greater than the demand in all provincial capital cities.(4)In the demand regression,the health status of the elderly and the dependency ratio of the elderly are negatively correlated with the demand for elderly resources,and the consumption expenditure is positively correlated,while in the supply regression,the financial investment in elderly care,elderly workers,GDP per capita,institutions for the elderly,and urbanization rate are positively correlated with the supply of elderly resources.The demand regression shows a spatial distribution pattern of "large upstream and downstream regression coefficients and small midstream regression coefficients",while the supply regression shows a spatial distribution pattern of "large downstream regression coefficients and small midstream and upstream regression coefficients",and they all change with time.(5)The interaction of health status of the elderly and elderly dependency ratio controls the demand for elderly resources,and the interaction of financial investment in the most elderly and elderly institutions controls the supply of elderly resources,and the interaction of all influencing factors is enhanced,and the interaction of multiple factors is greater than the influence of a single factor on the supply and demand of elderly resources.Based on this,it provides a reference for the evaluation of the demand and supply indexes of elderly resources,provides a theoretical reference for alleviating the problem of population aging and its elderly resources allocation,and is of great significance for regulating the contradiction between supply and demand of urban and rural elderly resources,improving the rational allocation of elderly resources,and promoting social equity.