Spatio-temporal Pattern Of Population Aging And Its Driving Factors In The Yellow River Basin

Population aging is an inevitable result of population transformation and an important problem facing human society.Since our country entered the aging society in 2000,the aging population has grown rapidly,and the aging degree has continued to deepen,featuring large scale,fast,advanced,unbalanced urban and rural.Coping with the aging population has become a major task the country must face in the future.Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin have become a national strategy.Population,as the most active and dynamic factor,plays a fundamental role in the realization of the national strategy.Under the background of population reduction,fewer children and outflow,population aging in the Yellow River Basin is more prominent.It is of great significance to grasp the characteristics and laws of aging development and formulate countermeasures scientifically for the high-quality development of the basin.This paper takes 611 districts(counties)in 9 provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin as the basic research unit.Based on the data of the fifth,sixth and seventh population censuses,this paper systematically analyzes the temporal and spatial pattern of population aging in the Yellow River Basin by means of the aging level,aging speed,aging degree,aging type,etc.Based on the factors of population development and socio-economic development,this paper uses geographical weighted regression to reveal whether population aging in the Yellow River Basin is the result of in situ aging or the result of residual migration(dilution).The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the population aging in the Yellow River Basin was deepening,and showed a spatial pattern of decreasing from the lower reaches to the middle reaches to the upper reaches.In the upstream region,the aging degree is low,the growth rate is fast,and the internal imbalance is strong.The level of aging in the middle reaches of China has increased significantly.The aging degree is high and the growth rate is slow in the downstream area,and the elderly population is the most concentrated.(2)From the perspective of aging speed,the aging speed has developed from slow speed to fast speed,and the differentiation of upper,middle and lower reaches is obvious.From 2000 to 2010,the upper reaches > middle reaches > lower reaches;From 2000 to 2010,the order was middle > lower > upper.(3)There is a strong positive correlation between the level,speed and level of aging in the basin.LL region and HH region were the main correlation areas of aging level,which were concentrated and contiguous distribution,showing spatial correlation.The negative correlation between aging speed and horizontal bivariate changes to positive correlation,indicating that the consistency between aging speed and horizontal is enhanced,showing the characteristics of "old and fast".(4)The main types of population aging are residual aging and in situ aging,and the proportion of residual aging increases,mainly in the downstream and middle reaches;The unaged type and potential aged type were concentrated in the upstream area,but the number decreased gradually.Around each province(region)core city,there is a dilution of aging type.(5)Population aging is the result of internal and external factors.Potential aging areas are mainly influenced by natural population variability,namely birth and death rates,and the influence of mobility will increase by 2020;The mobility and per capita GDP have the highest influence in the dilution aging region.The natural variation and mobility of population were the main influencing factors in the residual-aging area.The potential elderly population and the degree of elderly population agglomeration in the aging in situ area are more important.