Spatial Pattern And Influencing Factors Of Small Town’s Population Growth And Shrinkage In The Yellow River Basin

Growth and shrinkage are global issues in the process of regional transformation and development.Since H(?)uβermann proposed the concept of urban shrinkage,the transformation and development of cities have received great attention.As a "mosaic" on the urban development map,townships are inevitably impacted by the transformation of central cities.For China,restricted by the idea of "focusing on the city over the countryside" in the early stage of urbanization development,the siphon effect of cities on labor,resources and capital in the surrounding hinterland(townships,towns and villages)has resulted in the weakening of agriculture,rural poverty,farmers’ education,The supply of medical care and pension is in short supply.In order to solve these "rural diseases",on the one hand,the Chinese government has promoted the coordinated development strategy of urban-rural planning,urban-rural integration,and urban-rural integration.”and other rural transformation and development strategies.Under the influence of these urban-rural interaction policies,identifying the types of growth and shrinkage of towns,clarifying their development patterns,and exploring their driving mechanisms and response strategies are the focus of research on the combination of new-type urbanization and rural revitalization,and are also important scientific issues for the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.Specifically,the economies of scale,specialized economy,and diversified economy of cities inevitably attract townships(villages)population,materials,and capital to gather in cities,thus causing the decline of surrounding townships.At the same time,the central city can also play a role in the radiation and driving of the city,and promote the growth of surrounding townships through the spillover effects of technology and capital.In order to reveal the pattern of population growth and shrinkage in townships,and to explore the mechanism and response strategies of townships growth and shrinkage in the context of new urbanization and rural revitalization,this paper constructs a heuristic analysis framework,using 2000 and 2010 census data and 2020 statistics Yearbook data,identify the growth and shrinkage types of 5,732 townships in the Yellow River Basin according to the population change rate,analyze their evolution patterns,and use the generalized additive model to explore the influence of central city radiation,townships economies of scale,transportation advantages,and natural conditions on the growth and shrinkage of townships’ populations.Nonlinear effects,with special attention to the polarization of central cities on towns,the trickle-down effect and the endogenous growth of towns.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)The heuristic analysis framework of townships growth and shrinkage is an inclusive and dynamic analysis framework proposed from a governance perspective.The multi-scale nature of population changes in townships causes the complexity of its driving forces.The growth and shrinkage of townships is an important manifestation of the results of population changes.tax oriented,technology oriented,infrastructure oriented,space oriented,Organization oriented,product oriented,industry oriented and other response measures are powerful guidance for the transformation and revitalization of townships.(2)The growth and shrinkage of townships and towns in the Yellow River Basin coexist,and the spatial distribution of townships with different degrees of growth and shrinkage is different.There are significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,mainly high-high and low-low types.The shrinking area is mainly concentrated in the "Ji Zi Wan" area,and the growth area is mainly concentrated in the Central Plains and the peninsula urban agglomeration area.(3)According to the differences in the growth and shrinkage status of townships in different years,the growth and shrinkage patterns of townships in the Yellow River Basin are divided into four types: continuous shrinkage(2.8%),staged shrinkage(7.7%),and continuous growth(40.4%),transformation growth(49.1%).Growth-type townships are mainly distributed in technology-intensive and labor-intensive cities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.These areas have good geographical environment,a certain scale of population and industry,and convenient transportation,while shrinking-type townships are mainly distributed in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin and resources.dense city.(4)Natural conditions,scale effects,and location conditions have significant nonlinear effects on the growth and shrinkage of towns in the Yellow River Basin,and there is an obvious threshold effect.Plain and flat-type townships have inherent development advantages,but high-altitude areas with gentle slopes and abundant water resources can still find growth paths based on their unique natural background and product advantages.Economies of scale have positive and negative externalities,and each townships needs to integrate local carrying capacity and environmental governance systems to achieve economies of scale.The polarization and trickle-down effect of central towns will cause the shrinkage and growth of townships.Relying on convenient transportation facilities and clarifying the industrial positioning will help to realize the benign interaction between urban and rural areas.(5)Townships with different types of growth and shrinkage should explore growth and transformation paths that adapt to local conditions.Shrinking towns with superior natural conditions should explore local product advantages,innovate organizational business models,and gradually form scale effects based on comparative advantages.Shrinking townships with a certain industrial foundation should actively integrate into the construction of regional industrial chains,and actively participate in regional industrial division of labor through industrial upgrading.Shrinking townships with superior traffic conditions can take advantage of the radiation influence of central cities to develop rural tourism resources,develop leisure agriculture,and explore development opportunities through industrial transformation.And the towns that are showing a growth trend can upgrade the industrial system based on their existing advantages,guide the development of industrial clusters,parks,and intelligent development,continue to maintain the growth trend,and actively promote the integration of urban and rural areas.