| Cultivated land guarantees the source of material for human survival and is the basis for promoting social development.The total amount of cultivated land in my country is small and the reserve resources are insufficient.The protection of cultivated land is a major strategic issue related to national food security and social and economic development.However,the development of industrialization and urbanization poses a serious threat to the scale and quality of cultivated land in my country,and problems such as abandonment of cultivated land are more serious.Therefore,it is urgent to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of abandoned cultivated land in order to provide a basis for the improvement and formulation of cultivated land protection policies.Taking Pingyang County,Zhejiang Province,where the economy is relatively developed in eastern China and the contradiction between man and land is prominent,as an example,this dissertation extracts the land-scale abandonment information of Pingyang County from 2000 to 2018 based on technologies such as remote sensing,GIS analysis,and R language,and analyzes Pingyang County.The quantity and spatial distribution of abandoned cultivated land in the county were studied,and the influencing factors of cultivated land abandonment were explored.Finally,the trend of cultivated land utilization in Pingyang County in 2025 was predicted,and the high-risk areas of cultivated land abandoned were identified,and corresponding management and control measures and countermeasures were proposed.The main contents and conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:(1)Based on high-resolution remote sensing images and land use data,the plot-scale abandoned cultivated land information in Pingyang County from 2000 to 2018 was extracted,and the quantitative changes and the shift of the center of gravity of cultivated land abandoned in Pingyang County were analyzed.And spatial distribution characteristics.The results show that in the past 20 years,the area of abandoned arable land in Pingyang County has increased from 442 hectares to 5,797 hectares,and the area of abandoned arable land has increased by 5,355 hectares.The hot spots and the center of gravity of desertion were originally located in the western mountainous area of the county.This is because the mountains in the west are vertical and horizontal,with high altitude and steep slope,which are not conducive to farming and are prone to abandonment.With the passage of time,the hot spot and center of gravity of desertion began to shift to the east of Pingyang County,and the abandoned cultivated land was no longer limited to the cultivated land in the mountainous area,and began to expand to the plain area.(2)Based on the random forest model,an in-depth analysis was carried out on the influencing factors that caused the abandonment of cultivated land in Pingyang County from 2000 to 2018.The results showed that during the study period,both the altitude and the slope had a greater impact on the occurrence of abandoned cultivated land.The higher the altitude and the greater the slope,the more serious the abandoned phenomenon of cultivated land was;the distance factor had a certain degree of influence on the abandonment of cultivated land.The influence of neighboring factors on the expansion of cultivated land abandonment was greater in 2000-2010,but the influence weakened in2010-2018.(3)Based on the distribution of abandoned cultivated land in Pingyang County in2000,2010 and 2018,the FLUS model was used to predict the trend of abandoned cultivated land in Pingyang County in 2025.The results show that Fengwo Town,Tengjiao Town and Nanyan Town in the northwestern mountainous area of Pingyang County are high-risk areas for desertion.If not controlled,a large area of arable land will be abandoned.In addition,the probability of abandonment in the mountainous areas near Aojiang Town and Haixi Town is relatively high. |
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