Simulation Of Farmland Quality In Multi-scale Based On CA Model

The quantity and quality of cultivated land resources reflect the basic national conditions of a country and play a decisive role in the country’s food security and economic development capacity.The quantity and quality of cultivated land are affected by various factors,such as nature,society,economy,technology and so on.In order to achieve the goal of arable land protection from quantity balance and management to quantity-quality-ecological integrated management,it is important to accurately grasp the spatial distribution,quality status,and future changes of regional arable land.The study on the trend of cultivated land quality is helpful to explore the driving mechanism of cultivated land use change and deepen the understanding of the spatial pattern of cultivated land quality.The Changsha-liuyang-pingjiang Hilly Area of Hunan Province was selected as the research area for this study.The wavelet analysis method was used to calculate the characteristic scales of the key factors affecting the quality of cultivated land.The cultivated land quality evaluation system was constructed at a three-level scale.Constructing a cultivated land quality evaluation system on a three-level scale comprehensive evaluation and spatio-temporal analysis of cultivated land quality in the research area in 2005,2010,and 2015,The FLUS model was used to simulate future changes in the amount and space of cultivated land under the scenario of cultivated land protection,and predicts the quality of cultivated land in the Changsha-liuyang-pingjiang Hilly Area in 2025.Finally,the future spatial pattern of cultivated land use and the changes in cultivated land quality are discussed trend.The method of wavelet analysis to divide the scale avoids the limitation of using different levels of administrative divisions as scale division in traditional cultivated land quality evaluation,and provides new ideas for multi-scale cultivated land quality assessment.The study of future changes in cultivated land quality trends has enriched and expanded the existing Contents of spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land quality.The main conclusions are:(1)Based on the wavelet analysis results of the elevation and slope factors in he Changsha-liuyang-pingjiang Hilly Area,60 km was selected as the characteristic scale for dividing the research scale,and the Changsha-liuyang-pingjiang Hilly Area was divided into three levels according to the topography and socioeconomic factors.(2)From 2005 to 2015,the rapid development of the urbanization process in the Changsha-liuyang-pingjiang Hilly Area led to a large amount of high-quality cultivated land being occupied by urban industrial and mining residents.However,the quality of the supplemented cultivated land is difficult to compare with the occupied cultivated land,so the quality of cultivated land generally shows a downward trend.(3)Under the influence of the cultivated land protection policy,the area of cultivated land in the Changsha-liuyang-pingjiang Hilly Area showed a slight decline trend in 2025,mainly concentrated in non-basic farmland protection areas.The cultivated land in the basic farmland protection area still has area advantages.The results show that the cultivated land protection policy has slowed down the situation of urban cultivated land occupation and the disorderly expansion.(4)Based on the comprehensive changes of cultivated land quality on the three-level scale in 2025,the guiding role of related policies and management was found.In the future protection of cultivated land,it is necessary to control the scale of cultivated land occupied by non-agricultural construction,continue to maintain the number of permanent basic farmland,optimize the layout of cultivated land as an important means of protecting and improving the quality of cultivated land,and implement different protection and management of cultivated land in accordance with the differences between regions policies,and overall consideration of the relationship between the quantity and quality of cultivated land,to promote the sustainable use of regional cultivated land resources.