The grass and livestock industry dominated by beef cattle breeding is a traditional advantageous industry in the southern mountainous area of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,which has made an important contribution to the local agricultural and rural economic development and the majority of farmers to get rid of poverty and become rich.However,affected by drought,little rain and soil erosion,the local government can only develop a grass and livestock industry integrating green planting and breeding,and carry out appropriate scale breeding through the development of artificial grassland and crop straw resources.Therefore,it is urgent to analyze and evaluate the carrying capacity of local livestock and poultry,and explore the development space of grass and livestock industry in the future.Based on the above analysis,this study takes Haiyuan County of Ningxia as the object.Based on the systematic investigation of local planting and breeding industry,the livestock and poultry breeding carrying capacity of planting system in Haiyuan county is calculated and analyzed by using the reasonable livestock carrying capacity calculation and nitrogen phosphorus nutrient balance method in the two dimensions of geographical distribution and temporal and spatial change;The utilization potential of livestock manure resources and the reasonable utilization of livestock manure resources in the county were calculated;Finally,based on the principles of combination of planting and breeding,balance of grass and livestock and balance of material supply and demand,combined with the analysis results of the two systems of planting and breeding in Haiyuan County,this paper analyzes and studies the reasonable breeding bearing space,overload rate and future development space of herbivorous livestock in Haiyuan County,so as to provide quantitative,scientific and objective judgment basis and theoretical basis for guiding the balance and sustainable development of grass and livestock in Haiyuan county.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The results of systematic investigation on the aquaculture industry in Haiyuan County show that the total demand of standard hay and concentrate in Haiyuan County in2020 is 795596.49t and 230068.65t respectively.At present,the animal husbandry in Haiyuan county is dominated by beef cattle breeding,and the breeding of herbivorous livestock is mainly raised by farmers.The output of roughage in the whole county can basically meet the breeding needs and achieve the balance between supply and demand.Only some beef cattle groups under the intensive breeding mode of large-scale farms and breeding cooperatives need to purchase roughage,accounting for 16%of the total demand at most.In terms of supply and demand of concentrate,there is a large gap between supply and demand,and 48%of concentrate needs to be purchased.(2)The calculation results of the reasonable livestock carrying capacity of Haiyuan County show that the most suitable areas for the development of grass and livestock industry in the county are mainly distributed in the moderately arid areas from the north of Nanhua mountain to Haicheng Town and the surrounding areas of machun River,amaranth River and Zhonghe River Basin.From 2007 to 2020,the annual reasonable livestock carrying capacity of Haiyuan county has always fluctuated between 120000-140000 standard cattle units,and the average unit reasonable livestock carrying capacity and annual reasonable livestock carrying capacity can reach 0.93 cattle unit/hm~2 and 128062.34 cattle unit respectively.(3)The calculation results of the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Haiyuan County show that there is the problem of excessive application of phosphorus fertilizer.If the calculation is based on the phosphorus nutrient balance,the agricultural and livestock breeding system in Haiyuan county has no bearing space for livestock and poultry breeding.Based on the analysis of nitrogen nutrient balance method,the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Haiyuan county may be maintained at about 350000 cattle units for a long time in the future,while the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding per unit will be maintained at about 2.56 cattle units/hm~2.(4)The research on the fertilizer utilization potential of livestock and poultry manure resources in the aquaculture system of Haiyuan county shows that in the geographical spatial dimension,the production of livestock and poultry manure in Haiyuan County gradually decreases from the northeast to the southwest.The production in the northeast is higher,and the production in the West and south is less.The distribution characteristics are basically similar to the spatial distribution characteristics of herbivorous livestock,especially beef cattle breeding.In addition,based on the analysis of nitrogen and nutrient balance,except for Sanhe Town,Liwang Town,Gaoya Township and Hongyang Township,all townships in Haiyuan county have a certain space for livestock and poultry manure pollution;Based on the analysis of phosphorus nutrient balance,it is found that except Guanqiao Township,the phosphorus nutrient supply of livestock and poultry manure and chemical fertilizer in all townships of the county has exceeded the nutrient carrying space.In the dimension of temporal and spatial change,this study found that the fecal pollution of livestock and poultry in Haiyuan county over the years has always been dominated by the fecal pollution of herbivorous livestock breeding,especially the fecal pollution of beef cattle breeding.Based on the analysis of nitrogen and nutrient balance,it is found that the accommodation space of livestock and poultry manure in Haiyuan county has always been in a rich state over the years.Based on the analysis of phosphorus nutrient balance,the supply of livestock manure and fertilizer phosphorus nutrients in Haiyuan county over the years has exceeded the nutrient carrying space,only the supply of fertilizer phosphorus nutrients has exceeded the nutrient carrying space,and the excessive application of phosphorus fertilizer has always been a local problem.(5)The research on the reasonable breeding bearing space,overload rate and future development space of herbivorous livestock in Haiyuan county shows that in terms of geospatial analysis,the breeding bearing capacity and development space of herbivorous livestock in Qiying town and Guanqiao Township in Haiyuan County in 2020 are the best in the whole county,and the development potential of grass and livestock industry is great;There may be a serious problem of excessive application of chemical fertilizer in Hongyang township.In 2020,the overload villages and towns in the county are Sanhe Town,Liwang Town,Gaoya Township,Guanzhuang Township and Hongyang Township,and the reasons for the overload are also different.In terms of temporal and spatial change analysis,this paper calculates that the breeding scale of herbivorous livestock in Haiyuan County in the future should be controlled between 128062.34-340693.99 cattle units,and the breeding equivalent of herbivorous livestock per unit should be controlled between 0.93-2.48 cattle units/hm~2.In terms of overload rate and development space analysis,there was no overload in herbivorous livestock breeding in Haiyuan county over the years from 2007 to 2020,and there was plenty of development space.The main constraints on the development of grass and livestock industry in Haiyuan County in the future may be the shortage of roughage and the imbalance between supply and demand of concentrate,while environmental problems are not the main factors restricting the development of grass and livestock industry in Haiyuan county. |