| As a hub for resource transportation and distribution,ports play a vital role in the development of the hinterland economy.With the increasing throughput of ports,port investment operators need to increase investment in port capacity and port infrastructure in order to meet market demand.However,ports are often affected by natural disasters,which can cause disruptions and damage to port facilities,so it is important to invest in prevention to ensure port operations.The uncertainties associated with port operations,such as the uncertainty of hinterland freight demand and the occurrence of climatic disasters,make the issue of port investment even more complex.Therefore,considering the influence of the above factors,the investment problem of regional ports can be studied to effectively promote regional economic development and enhance the level of competitiveness of regional ports.In this thesis,a multi-objective optimization model that integrates the interests of port operators,the transport costs of regional networks,and the operational efficiency of port clusters is developed,taking into account the regional port investment problem and disasters under uncertain demand as the research object.The main research elements include:(1)Firstly,the current situation of domestic and foreign research is summarized from three perspectives: port capacity investment,port prevention investment,and disaster management.The shortcomings of existing research are then put forward,and the research content of this thesis is clarified.The concepts and theories related to regional ports,regional port investment,port natural disaster risk factors,and research methods are elaborated to lay the theoretical foundation for subsequent research.(2)A multi-objective optimization model for regional port investment considering disasters and uncertain demand is constructed.The functional relationship between the interests of port operators,regional network transport costs,and the operational efficiency of port clusters is firstly represented,then based on the discrete characteristics of hinterland freight demand,the robust optimization scenario method is used to characterize the uncertainty of demand,while the impact of disaster factors on ports is considered,and finally the multi-objective investment optimization model is constructed by combining constraints such as budget constraints,investment returns,and cargo flow allocation.A non-dominated ranking genetic algorithm(NSGA-II)is designed for the model,and the model is solved using MATLAB software.(3)Based on the importance of the Yangtze River Delta port cluster in regional economic and social development,the port investment problem in the Yangtze River Delta region is empirically analyzed to calculate the optimal investment decision scheme for capacity investment and prevention investment in ports and to obtain the conclusions of this thesis.The results are conducive to improving the operational efficiency of port clusters,reducing the impact of disasters on ports,and providing theoretical references for regional port investment decisions.This research is based on the importance of ports to regional economic development,taking into account the total cost of the region and the operational efficiency of port clusters to establish a multi-objective optimization model,considering the impact of factors such as capacity investment,intensity of disaster occurrence,and prevention investment on port throughput capacity,choosing wind damage as a disaster factor,and using a two-parameter Weibull distribution to portray the distribution of actual wind speed,making the model more realistic. |
