| In terms of infrastructure investment,our country upholds the concept of moderate advancement.However,imbalances still exist in the throughput capacity of some ports and their own needs,resulting in resource waste and other phenomena.Therefore,determining and predicting the supply and demand of port throughput is of great importance for the construction and development of ports.Ports are important nodes for international trade and logistics,and the supply and demand situation directly affects the operational efficiency and development potential of ports.By studying the supply and demand relationship of ports,scientific decision-making and direction can be provided for the development of ports,promoting healthy development of ports and improving the efficiency of port operations.The balance between port supply and demand determines the operational efficiency of ports,and different supply and demand relationships will affect aspects such as port operational efficiency,cargo turnover speed,and storage capacity.By studying the supply and demand relationship,problems such as inadequate or wasteful allocation of port resources can be identified,and reasonable resource allocation plans can be proposed to optimize the efficiency of port resource allocation and utilization.In summary,port supply and demand research is an important way to promote port development,improve port operation efficiency,optimize resource allocation,and improve logistics efficiency.In the empirical analysis part,in order to evaluate the supply side situation of ports,this study will use the CCP evaluation model to comprehensively evaluate ports.In order to predict the demand for ports,this study will use the grey BP neural network for forecasting.Then,the supply and demand will be matched to obtain the port supply and demand benefits,and input-output analysis will be conducted to identify the obstacles and optimized paths for port development.From the perspective of the impact of the epidemic,the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global trade and port operations.In order to analyze the impact of the epidemic on port supply and demand,this study will compare and analyze the changes in port supply and demand before and after the epidemic.Through comparative analysis,we can better understand the degree and influencing factors of the epidemic’s impact on port supply and demand,providing a scientific basis for port management and planning.The main research findings are as follows:(1)The impact of the epidemic and changes in port supply.According to the three aspects of the scores of each port,the ports can be divided into: developed ports,balanced development ports,underdeveloped ports,and underdeveloped ports.Under the impact of the epidemic,the supply capacity of each port has undergone certain changes,and the changes in different types of ports are different.Ports with balanced development in three aspects,including balanced development ports and underdeveloped ports,are more able to withstand the impact of the epidemic,and there is no obvious change in their scores in all aspects.Guangzhou Port has achieved the transformation from conditions to potential in port supply,Shenzhen Port is the opposite,transforming potential advantages into growth in conditions and capabilities,and Tianjin Port and Dalian Port have also increased in condition scores.It can be seen that when the balanced development port faces the impact of the epidemic,the port chassis is relatively stable,and in general,it will not be negatively affected in terms of conditions.Compared with well-developed ports,balanced development ports can improve their conditions.For ports with uneven development due to outstanding or deficient aspects,the score has decreased to a certain extent.The scores of well-developed ports on conditions have decreased slightly,which shows that the impact of the epidemic is not conducive to the development of ports in terms of production conditions and economic conditions,especially for these ports with conditions as advantages.(2)The impact of the epidemic and changes in port demand.Under the impact of the epidemic,the demand change of the port is more obvious than the change in supply.The pandemic has caused a significant decline in global trade,which in turn has affected the flow and throughput of goods at ports.Since the epidemic has affected different countries and regions,changes in port demand will also be affected to varying degrees.Demand-matched ports are ports with roughly the same values predicted by the GM model as those predicted by the BP model,and these matching ports often have modern terminals,efficient cargo systems and stable political environments,all of which help maintain their continued growth in throughput.Over the past few years,the cargo throughput of these matching ports has maintained a steady growth.Although the growth of these ports slowed due to the financial crisis in2008 and the pandemic in 2020,the overall trend has not been greatly affected.Demand-development ports are ports whose GM model prediction value is greater than BP model prediction value,indicating that these ports have a closer connection with the city where they are located in development,and the port itself has developed relatively fully,and the future development speed will slow down.Demand potential ports are manifested as: the GM forecast value supported by port throughput data is lower than the BP forecast value supported by the economic,population and other attribute data of the city where the port is located,indicating that these ports are not closely related to the city,and the port itself still has room for development,or the development of the port in recent years has shown a weakening trend,and the competitiveness of the port has declined,so it is directly reflected in the decline of container throughput.(3)The impact of the epidemic and changes in port supply and demand benefits.Compared with 2019,the comprehensive benefits of port supply and demand have not changed in 2020 including Shanghai Port,Guangzhou Port,Shenzhen Port,Yantai Port,Ningbo Zhoushan Port and Zhanjiang Port,which have high operational efficiency and good economic benefits,and have not been significantly affected by the epidemic.Other ports have different degrees of change in supply and demand benefits,and more ports have decreased the comprehensive benefits of supply and demand,indicating that port operations under the epidemic are more vulnerable to negative impacts.From the aspect of changes in supply and demand rates: under the impact of the epidemic,major coastal ports have undergone some changes in redundancy rates.Among them,Dalian Port,Quanzhou Port and Haikou Port mainly have redundancy in terms of conditions,but overall,compared with 2019,the supply redundancy rate has been alleviated in terms of conditions.In terms of comprehensive supply,supply redundancy has been alleviated to a certain extent under the epidemic.In terms of insufficient demand rate,Dalian Port,Fuzhou Port and Haikou Port all have insufficient demand for container throughput,and in terms of foreign trade cargo throughput,Xiamen Port,Fuzhou Port and Shantou Port have insufficient demand.Compared with 2019,the biggest change in port demand is foreign trade cargo throughput,followed by container throughput,and finally cargo throughput,which also shows that under the impact of the epidemic,foreign trade has the most significant impact on ports,and container transportation is an important pillar of global trade.However,from 2019 to 2020,the change in supply rate and demand rate shows that the epidemic has a greater impact on demand than supply.(4)Suggestions for port development: First,port infrastructure construction should be strengthened to improve port throughput capacity and operational efficiency to meet the growing trade demand.In order to improve the environmental level and sustainable development capability of the port,green port construction should be promoted,such as the development of clean energy,the establishment of a sewage treatment system,and the promotion of environmentally friendly transportation methods.Secondly,attention should be paid to the input-output efficiency of the port,and input-output indicators should be subdivided to improve logistics efficiency: the process of cargo transportation and handling should be optimized to improve logistics efficiency.Ports can closely cooperate with partners in various links such as shipping companies,freight forwarders,and logistics companies to strengthen information sharing,reduce logistics costs,and achieve sustainable development.At the same time,multi-modal transport should be actively developed to strengthen the connection with inland transportation to improve port service levels and transportation efficiency.Strengthen cooperation between ports and surrounding areas.The port is not only a logistics hub but also an important economic pillar of the surrounding areas.Finally,the intelligent construction of ports should be strengthened,and new technologies and tools should be used to improve the management level and operational efficiency of the port,and achieve sustainable development.Establish an epidemic emergency plan for the port: develop corresponding emergency plans and measures according to different epidemic situations and degrees to ensure the safe and stable operation of the port.Improve the port’s security management system,which can help improve the port’s operational efficiency and service level and also ensure the safety of the port. |
