Analysis Of The Trade Potential Of China’s Automotive Exports To ASEAN

China is a major manufacturing export trading country,of which automobile exports account for a large proportion of China’s manufacturing output and have become a pillar industry in promoting China’s foreign trade.However,due to the fierce competition in the global automobile market and the rise of trade protectionism in recent years,China’s automobile exports are under increasing pressure and the growth rate of foreign trade is weak.Therefore,the active expansion of emerging export markets has become an inevitable requirement for the development of China’s auto export trade.ASEAN is an important target for China’s foreign trade cooperation,with a large scale of automobile demand,and has gradually implemented trade facilitation policies,with the basic conditions for China’s automobile exports to emerging potential markets.This paper analyses the current trade situation of China’s auto exports to ASEAN and measures its trade potential in order to identify new opportunities for China’s auto exports to ASEAN and broaden the market space for China’s auto exports.Based on the theoretical framework of trade gravity and trade potential,this paper analyses panel data on China’s automotive exports to ASEAN over the ten-year period from 2011 to 2020,in order to better understand the development potential of Chinese automobiles in the ASEAN market.The study analyses the overall status of China’s auto exports and the trade size and country structure of China’s auto exports to ASEAN.Secondly,an extended econometric model is constructed based on the trade gravity model by adding variables such as exchange rate,infrastructure cooperation,foreign trade dependence,China’s direct investment in ASEAN countries and the existence of a common border to analyse the influencing factors affecting China-ASEAN auto export trade;again,the trade potential value of Chinese auto exports to ASEAN is estimated based on the trade gravity model and the actual The actual export value was compared and classified with the trade potential value.The results show that,among the ASEAN countries,China’s auto export potential to Malaysia and Indonesia is of the "vigorous development" type;China’s auto export potential to Thailand,Vietnam and the Philippines is of the "conservative development" type;China’s auto export potential to Laos and Brunei is of the "conservative development" type.The potential for China’s auto exports to Laos and Brunei are all "reshaped potential";China’s auto export trade potential to Singapore,Myanmar and Cambodia is "limited development".Finally,the paper proposes policy recommendations based on these four different types of trade potential.For the "vigorous pioneering" countries,it is necessary to adjust the structure of auto exports,carry out technological innovation and enhance the added value of auto exports.For "conservative" countries,it is necessary to give full play to the advantages of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,change the structure of automotive exports and create new trade demand.For "limited development" countries,we need to strengthen policy communication and promote local infrastructure development.For "potential reshaping" countries,we need to speed up the process of RMB internationalization,increase bilateral financial exchanges and cooperation,and step up efforts to export new energy vehicles.