| In the context of today’s increasingly contradictory energy,environment and development,regional integrated energy systems have become one of the most important forms of transformation from traditional energy supply systems to modern intelligent energy systems.As more and more demonstration projects of regional integrated energy systems are being implemented,it is important to carry out a scientific and effective comprehensive evaluation of integrated district energy systems to develop a green and low-carbon economy and promote sustainable social development.However,the uncertainty of the system operation state will have a non-negligible impact on the evaluation results,therefore,this paper starts the research on the evaluation model of regional integrated energy system taking into account the uncertainty,the main contents are as follows:Firstly,in terms of comprehensive evaluation indicators,the "Driver-Pressure-StateImpact-Response-Management" model was introduced to build a comprehensive evaluation The system of indicators is based on the interaction between the sub-models in the model.The interaction between the various sub-models in the model is analysed,and typical indicators are selected by combining the various features of the regional integrated energy system,such as renewable energy access,multi-energy complementarity and high-quality optimisation and control,so that the constructed indicator system achieves a comprehensive degree of integration.The concept and calculation formula of each indicator are also given.Next,in the static comprehensive evaluation model,the uncertainty of the system operation state reduces the effective information of the index data,and the number of intervals is used to describe the index information,and the influence of uncertainty is dealt with by cloud correlation and interval affiliation,and the static comprehensive evaluation model of regional integrated energy system based on interval topologizable cloud model is proposed.Multiple links are used to calculate the weights,in which a Z-G1 method is proposed to solve the problem of incomplete and reliable decision-making information due to the cognitive limitations of experts,and the evidence theory is improved to fuse multiple expert weights.The feasibility and validity of the model are verified by simulation.Finally,in terms of the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model,in order to better reflect the dynamic development trend of the regional integrated energy system,the morphological change metric in time series similarity matching is introduced for optimisation and adjustment,and a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of the regional integrated energy system based on double-incentive control lines and morphological change is established.In calculating the time weights,the minimization difference method based on the orness measure is used.The feasibility and validity of the model are verified through arithmetic simulation,and the results are compared and analysed with the static evaluation results to verify the necessity of dynamic evaluation. |
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