Multi-stage Interval Planning And Comprehensive Evaluation For Park-level Integrated Energy System

With the rapid development of society,the demand for energy increases rapidly,which causes the world energy crisis and environmental pollution problems urgently need to be solved.Integrated energy system(IES)breaks through the traditional single energy supply mode and realizes the organic coupling,comprehensive management and cascade utilization of multiple energy sources.It can effectively promote the utilization of renewable energy and significantly improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy,thus becoming an effective way to solve a series of energy problems.Reasonable planning scheme is the basis for the healthy operation of IES,and the comprehensive evaluation can provide an effective basis for planning decision-making and scientifically guide the construction and operation of the park with high comprehensive benefits.Under this background,this paper studies the planning and comprehensive evaluation of park-level integrated energy system(PIES),a typical userlevel IES.Firstly,this paper establishes the basic architecture of PIES,analyzes the operation characteristics of various types of equipment in the system and establishes the mathematical model.Considering the timeliness impact of park users’ migration and energy demand in actual operation,the park planning cycle is divided according to the load growth rate.At the same time,in order to describe the fluctuation of renewable energy output and energy load,the interval theory is introduced.Therefore,the PIES multi-stage interval planning model is proposed.In the solution of this model,the interval order relationship and RPDI model are used to carry out deterministic transformation of objective function and constraint conditions respectively,and the GUROBI is used to complete the final solution.In the example,the equipment selection and capacity configuration of PIES are completed,and the planning and operation schemes at different stages of the system are analyzed and studied.Through the comparison with other planning methods,the feasibility and economic superiority of the planning method proposed in this paper are proved.Considering the characteristics of multi energy cooperation and cascade utilization of PIES,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system from the five dimensions of economy,environment,energy consumption,operation and reliability,establishes the corresponding index mathematical model,and completes the index calculation based on the planning configuration and operation results.Considering the multi-input and multi-output evaluation attributes of PIES comprehensive evaluation,the classical theory of operational research data envelopment analysis method(DEA)is adopted as the evaluation method.At the same time,prospect theory is introduced to make up for the defects of ignoring the risk attitude and decision-making tendency of decision-makers in the existing system evaluation and flexibly capture the personal preferences and needs of decision-makers as irrational people in the park construction,Therefore,the prospect cross efficiency model for PIES comprehensive evaluation and the corresponding specific process of comprehensive evaluation are proposed.Firstly,through an example,the rationality and scientificity of the proposed evaluation index system and evaluation model are proved.Secondly,in comparison with other evaluation methods,it is found that the proposed method can effectively improve the acceptance,reliability and engineering applicability of the evaluation results.Finally,by applying the comprehensive evaluation method proposed in this paper,the optimization and improvement of the PIES planning scheme in the scene of scenery complementarity are completed,the comprehensive benefit improvement effect of PIES is achieved based on the original economic planning.