Research On The Economics And Potential Of Container Transportation In Arctic Route,Based On The Time Value Of Goods

As the global temperature rises,the rate of Arctic sea ice melting is accelerating.The continuous decline of sea ice coverage makes the Arctic waterway navigable year by year,greatly shortening the transportation distance between Asia and Europe and North America.With the accelerating process of regional integration and economic globalization,the Arctic shipping lane has received widespread attention from the international community and its value has been increasing,and it is likely to develop into an important part of the Asia-Europe cargo transportation route.Previous studies have shown that technology is no longer a constraint to the navigation of the Arctic shipping lanes,but large-scale Arctic navigation has not yet been formed.The opening,selection and formation of Arctic shipping lanes have had a great impact on global trade.Before the opening of the new waterway,shipping enterprises should consider whether the waterway is feasible and economically beneficial,and the cost and profit generated by the new waterway must be carefully considered and argued by the decision makers of shipping enterprises;national governments should consider the development potential of the waterway,and one of the key discussion elements of the Arctic issue is the opening of the Arctic waterway,and in the context of the general concern of the international community on Arctic affairs,China,as a near-Arctic developing countries,should make a Chinese voice in the arena of Arctic affairs and provide a new perspective and direction for win-win cooperation in the Arctic waterway,which has certain reference significance for China’s Arctic strategic planning.Therefore,this paper quantitatively assesses the economics of container ship transportation in the Arctic waterway and the transportation potential of the Arctic waterway,with a view to providing theoretical reference for the scale navigation problem of the Arctic waterway.This paper firstly describes the background significance of the study,the idea and method as well as the innovation point of this paper in the introduction.Then the research results on the transportation and cargo time value of the Arctic waterway at home and abroad are sorted out,mainly including the research on the transportation environment of the waterway,the problem of transportation economy level potential and the concept of cargo time value and its application in the field of transportation;the relevant theoretical foundation part introduces the evaluation indexes of international shipping economy and potential,compares the navigation situation of the Arctic route in recent years,and the correlation between cargo time value and the Arctic waterway.The relevance of transportation.Then,on the theoretical basis,based on the influencing factors of each part of international shipping economy,the mathematical model of shipping cost of Arctic shipping lane is established and each influencing factor is physically analyzed,and with reference to the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System issued by the World Customs Organization,the 22 major international trade container cargoes are divided into four categories based on value and time sensitivity by using systematic cluster analysis,and the study of releasing cargoes to capital occupation,reduce the extra cost caused by the delay of transportation time and avoid the devaluation of cargo,put forward the calculation model of time value of cargo,and consider the factors of capital and time in container transportation,establish the economical model of container transportation in Arctic shipping lane based on time value of cargo,and study the unit container shipping cost in Northeast Arctic shipping lane.Finally,this paper establishes the cost flow network allocation model based on cargo time value to study the allocation ratio of each type of cargo transported in the Northeast Passage and the influence of initial value of cargo,depreciation rate and transportation time on the allocation situation of the Northeast Passage.It is found that the overall number of ship passage and cargo volume in the Arctic shipping lane after 2015 shows a significant upward trend,but the overall number of containers is low,mainly for general cargo ships and cruise ships,and the anti-ice class of ships is also mainly Arc4 class with lower falsification.The main reason is that in the case of not considering the time value of goods,due to the existence of high-cost ice navigation,the cost of the voyage of the Arctic route with slightly higher than the Suez route;but the cost of cargo time into the shipping costs,the Arctic route due to the characteristics of short distance and fast time,can reduce the devaluation of goods and the cost of capital occupation to a certain extent,so for high-value and time-sensitive goods in high latitude ports Therefore,the Arctic shipping route is more convenient,efficient and economic for the transportation of high-value and time-sensitive cargoes in high-latitude ports.The current high shipping cost of the Arctic route leads to the overall proportion of the route is lower than the traditional route,but in the future,due to the year-on-year increase in international trade,the Suez Canal is likely to be congested with severe conditions,the Arctic route will appear the advantages of short distance and fast time,and the overall proportion of the allocation of high-value,time-sensitive goods is higher,up to 70% or more,and the proportion of transport allocation in high-latitude ports can reach More than 90%,with great potential for development.