Research On Robust Optimization Of Multi-Uncertain Modal Transport Routes Under Low-Carbon Policy

With the implementation of The Dual Carbon Strategy,the importance of energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation sector has become highlighted.Compared with a single mode of transportation,multimodal transport has the advantages of reducing costs and increasing efficiency,energy saving and emission reduction.In the multimodal transport system,there are many parameters,which are often uncertain due to the dual influence of the internal and external environment,and uncertain parameters will affect the multimodal transport operator to make reasonable transport decisions.Therefore,based on low-carbon policies,considering the schedule,receipt time limits of railways and waterways,and transport scenarios with multiple uncertain parameters(carbon price,demand and transport capacity),the question arises as to how multimodal transport operators can make reasonable transport decisions based on this.Firstly,this paper started with the transport scenario determined by parameters,considered the schedule of railway and waterway,and built a multimodal transport route optimization model considering different low-carbon policies based on the action mechanism of four different low-carbon policies(mandatory carbon emission,carbon tax,carbon trading and carbon compensation),and used examples and genetic algorithms to summarize and analyze the impact of specific low-carbon policies on the transportation decisions of multimodal transport operators.Secondly,combined with China’s carbon trading market,the carbon trading policy was selected as the research background,considering the limitation of the receipt time window,aiming at the uncertain carbon price and demand in the multimodal transport route optimization problem,using robust optimization to deal with the situation that the probability distribution function of carbon price and demand with product relationship is unknown,a robust optimization model of multimodal transport route with uncertain carbon price and demand is constructed,and the law of double uncertainty parameters on the operator’s transportation decision change is analyzed based on the calculation example.Finally,based on the robust optimization model of multimodal transport routes with uncertain carbon price and demand,the uncertainty of transport capacity is further considered,and the robust optimization model of multimodal transport routes with uncertain carbon price,demand and transport capacity is constructed,and the effect of multiple uncertain parameters on the change of operators’ transport decisions after considering the uncertain transport capacity of the actual carrier for cargo transportation is discussed.Based on the above research work,(1)by taking specific low-carbon policies as a research scenario,observing the responses of multimodal transport operators to different low-carbon policies,and accelerating the government’s implementation of low-carbon policies in the transportation industry as soon as possible;(2)Based on the uncertainty of carbon price,demand,and transportation capacity,by adjusting the robust level parameters,it is obvious that slight fluctuations in system parameters will cause changes in transportation decisions;(3)Uncertainty of robust optimization processing parameters,out of the consideration of system conservatism and robustness,in order to avoid the harm caused by the risk of uncertain parameters to enterprise operations,although multimodal transport operators often avoid risks by increasing economic costs,the decision-making scheme is more inclined to low-carbon transportation;(4)Considering their own internal and external environment,operators can draw on the changes in transportation decisions under various degrees of fluctuation of parameters to formulate low-carbon and reasonable transportation plans for actual transportation.