Research On The Uncertain Multimodal Transport Optimization Problem Based On Carbon Policy Constraints

In the 21 st century,with the increase of population,the deterioration of climate conditions and the serious shortage of fossil fuels,our living environment has been severely damaged.In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,slow down greenhouse gas effects and care for the environment,international organizations require production enterprises to develop green,environment-friendly and low-carbon transport.Multimodal transport has both environmental and economic benefits.It can not only reduce noise pollution and carbon emissions,but also shorten transport time and reduce transport costs.It is a kind of green and environmentally-friendly transport mode with high energy efficiency and high transport quality.The concept of " low carbon economy" first appeared in the white paper " the future of our energy: creating a low carbon economy" promulgated by British government in 2003,which is a monumental progress in reducing carbon emissions around the world.Low-carbon transportation occupies a very critical position in low-carbon economy,which will be an important development trend of China's transportation industry in the future.In order to meet the requirements of China's energy saving and emission reduction policies,China introduced and implemented carbon tax and carbon trading policies to regulate and control the carbon emissions of transport enterprises.Combining with the previous research basis,this paper first summarizes the related concepts,carbon policy and uncertainty theory of low-carbon economy,low-carbon transport and multimodal transport,and provides basic theoretical support for the following model establishment and case analysis.Then it analyzes various uncertain factors in the process of multimodal transport,introduces interval variables into the multimodal transport problem,selects uncertain factors of transport time and transport cost to study,establishes the uncertain multimodal transport optimization model under carbon tax and carbon trading policy,adopts interval sorting method to convert the uncertain model into deterministic model,and uses CPLEX software to solve the deterministic model.Finally,this paper selects the uncertain multimodal transport case from Beijing to Nanchang for analysis,and combining with relevant data,calculates the transport cost and total transport carbon emission,and provides enterprises with appropriate low-carbon uncertain multimodal transport scheme according to the transport time requirements.The results of the case study show that under the premise of carbon policy requirements,when enterprises require shorter transportation time,rail transportation is the most suitable way of transportation.On the contrary,water transportation is the most suitable way of transportation.Rail transport and water transport can meet the general requirements of enterprises on transport time and carbon cost,so in the process of uncertain multimodal transport,water-iron multimodal transport should be vigorously developed.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)under the background of low-carbon economy,considering the impact of economic cost and environmental cost on uncertain multimodal transport.(2)combing with carbon policy to study the uncertain multimodal transport costs,and explore the impact of carbon policy on transport options.