Research On Optimization Of Low-carbon Multimodal Transport Route Under Uncertainty

The transportation industry is one of the areas where China’s energy demand and emissions of pollutants such as carbon dioxide have rapidly increased in recent years,following industry.At present,in China’s primary energy consumption,the energy demand of the transportation industry accounts for about 10%,which is still a big gap compared with the general situation that transportation accounts for one third of the energy demand in developed countries.It is expected that the carbon emissions of China’s transportation industry will continue to grow after 2030.Therefore,in order to reduce carbon emissions during transportation and achieve the national "dual carbon" goal as soon as possible,it is necessary to work together from both the root cause and structure to seek breakthroughs.Promoting the adjustment of transportation structure towards a green and low-carbon direction and reducing carbon emissions during transportation is of great significance for the country to achieve the "dual carbon" goal.Therefore,on the basis of drawing on existing research results,this paper uses the combination of quantitative and qualitative research research methods to incorporate carbon emission cost minimization into the objective function,and describes the uncertain factors in the transportation process through fuzzy variables to build a mathematical model to study the optimization of multimodal transport routes under uncertain conditions,which has certain reference significance for China to build a green and low-carbon transport system.The main work of the paper is as follows:(1)Through extensive literature review,this paper summarizes and summarizes existing research on carbon emissions,mainly focusing on using carbon emissions as optimization goals or constraints,providing a good approach for this study.However,there are still certain limitations in the study of multimodal transportation in uncertain environments.Then,the current situation and development prospects of multimodal transportation in China in recent years were analyzed.At the same time,the concept of low-carbon transportation was elaborated,the concept and approach of low-carbon transportation were introduced,the necessity of low-carbon transportation was explained,and finally,the basic knowledge of uncertain factors used in this article was introduced,laying the foundation for establishing mathematical models and solving mathematical models.(2)In the traditional single task multimodal transportation optimization model,from the perspective of the carrier,considering the uncertainty in the actual transportation process and the foresight of transportation plan formulation,triangular fuzzy variables are introduced to represent the uncertain demand for goods,and fuzzy time windows are set for nodes and destinations to establish the optimization model with the minimum total transportation cost and carbon emission cost,considering transportation capacity The optimization model containing uncertain variables is transformed into a deterministic mathematical model using fuzzy chance constraint theory,with constraints such as transfer capacity and minimum customer satisfaction.An improved ant colony algorithm is designed to solve the problem,and a case is designed to verify the correctness and applicability of the model.(3)From the perspective of multimodal transport operators,the uncertain demand for goods is represented by triangular fuzzy numbers for the optimization problem of low-carbon multimodal transport paths with multiple tasks.Considering the constraints of transportation capacity,time window constraints,and transportation mode schedules,a low-carbon multimodal transport path optimization model is constructed with the optimization objectives of minimizing total transportation cost and carbon emission cost under uncertain conditions.Using fuzzy chance constrained programming to handle uncertain variables in the model,designing ant colony algorithm to solve the model,and designing a case to verify the correctness and applicability of the model.As a hot issue in the current path optimization field,low-carbon multimodal transport can not only greatly promote the deep integration of various transport modes and improve the comprehensive transport efficiency.With the national goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,low-carbon multimodal transport has become the development trend of future multimodal transport with its advantages of focusing on reducing social logistics costs and promoting energy conservation,emission reduction and carbon reduction.