Study On The Impact Of China-Europe Freight Trains On The Trade Structure Between China And Kazakhstan

As the "Belt and Road" initiative enters its second phase of high-quality development,the china-europe freight train has further developed to become the most important transport route for China’s inland cities to integrate into international trade.Against the background of structural changes in the global economy,such as persistently high inflation and sluggish global aggregate demand,China’s trade surplus continues to increase.It is urgent for China to upgrade its industrial and export structure and optimize its foreign trade structure,improve the quality of foreign trade.Kazakhstan and China are close neighbors and the first stop of the "Belt and Road".Since the establishment of diplomatic ties,the two countries have reached a series of trade cooperation agreements,which have promoted the development of economic and trade friendship between the two countries.There are great differences in economic development level,resource endowment and industrial structure between China and Kazakhstan.After the opening of the china-europe freight train,China and Kazakhstan have been enriched in the mode of trade transport and optimized in the structure of commodity transport,it is of great practical significance to study the role of china-europe train in the trade structure of the two countries for avoiding trade risks and optimizing China’s industrial structure.This thesis takes China and Kazakhstan as the object of study,studies the impact of the opening of china-europe freight train on the trade structure of the two countries and its path of action,the main research content is as follows:(1)This thesis introduces the background and significance of the research,summarizes the relevant literature at home and abroad and its shortcomings,and puts forward the research perspective of this thesis,based on the transportation economic theory and international trade theory,this thesis discusses the impact of sino-european freight trains on trade structure.(2)Based on the background of china-europe train,this thesis qualitatively combs the development of china-kazakhstan trade structure.This part summarizes the development of the train from both Macro and micro perspectives,combing the main domestic and foreign stations of the train in China and Kazakhstan in detail.After a brief introduction of the trade between the two countries,this thesis systematically analyzes the impact of the trains on the import and export trade structure of China and Kazakhstan from three aspects: trade commodity structure,trade mode structure and trade mode structure.The study shows that after the running of the china-europe freight train,China’s trade in industrial products from Kazakhstan increased in terms of the structure of trade in goods,and in terms of inputs by factors of production,china’s trade in imported laborintensive products and export capital-intensive products has been promoted,the single trade structure of plants,textile raw material imports,chemical products,textiles and other exports increased,and the excessive proportion of mineral trade was improved.In terms of trade mode,the general trade is growing faster than the processing trade,becoming the largest proportion of trade mode,changing the border trade-led phenomenon.The study of trade patterns shows that the level of intra-industry trade rises by 39%,inter-industry trade ceases to exist,and high-level intra-industry trade begins to appear.(3)The analysis of the impact of sino-eu trains on the trade structure between China and Kazakhstan.This part is based on the discussion of the accessibility and spatial interaction between China and Kazakhstan before and after the opening of the train.The accessibility study shows that the Central European train has greatly increased the accessibility and spatial interaction between the cities along the domestic routes and the regions of Kazakhstan,and the promotion effect on the cities along the domestic routes is stronger than that on the regions of Kazakhstan,under the model of mean travel time,the areas with increasing accessibility are concentrated in the Yangtze River basin,showing the spatial characteristics of inland to coastal and north to south Under the economic potential model,the regions of increasing spatial interaction are concentrated in the northwest,while for Kazakhstan,the spatial pattern of accessibility and spatial interaction is gradually decreasing to the west.(4)The multi-time-point double difference model is established.Taking the opening of china-europe train service as the core explanatory variable,this thesis makes an empirical study on the impact of train service on the trade structure between China and Kazakhstan by using panel data of 11 Central Asian countries,including trade openness and population.The results show that china-eu freight trains have positive effects on China’s trade structure indicators,such as the import of manufactured goods,the export of capital-intensive products,the import of labor-intensive products and intra-industry trade,it can restrain the import of capital-intensive products and the export of laborintensive products,and conforms to the development law of international trade commodity export trade.(5)Based on the above research contents,summarize the main research conclusions,and put forward policy recommendations for the development of sino-eu train and sinokazakhstan industrial structure.And based on the problems encountered in the research process,the future research direction is expected.