Study On The Influence Of Overconfidence On The New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Under The Technological Innovation Perspective

With the booming development of the new energy vehicle(NEV),the number of car companies joining the new energy vehicle track is increasing,and the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce.How to enhance competitiveness in the current background to maximize profits has become the biggest challenge faced by the relevant manufacturers.In addition,the price of raw materials for power batteries has risen significantly,and the cost control has become one of the important issues facing the new energy vehicle industry.The process innovation of power battery(PB)manufacturers can not only reduce the production cost,but also improve the battery quality and improve the performance of the whole vehicle.At the same time,the overcapacity phenomenon of power batteries raises concerns about overconfidence.NEV manufacturers are more prone to overconfident behavior,which can have an impact on the overall NEV supply chain decisions and thus on the profitability of the company and its supply chain.Based on the process innovation of PB manufacturers and the over-confidence of NEV manufacturers,this thesis develops a decision making model for the new energy vehicle supply chain and investigates the impact of PB manufacturers’ process innovation capability and NEV manufacturers’ over-confidence on the decision making and profitability of supply chain members.The results of the study show that:(i)the equilibrium strategies and profits of the new energy vehicle supply chain members vary positively with the PB producer’s process innovation capability,regardless of whether the NEV manufacturer has overconfidence behaviour or not.(ii)The overconfidence of NEV manufacturers has a negative impact on the new energy vehicle supply chain,and as the degree of overconfidence deepens,the wholesale price of power batteries,the process level of PB producers,the retail price of complete vehicles and the profits of PB producers and NEV manufacturers decline.Secondly,the possible misreporting of information on process innovation by PB producers is considered in depth,and the impact of PB producers’ misreporting on the decision making and profitability of supply chain members under the scenarios of rational and overconfident NEV manufacturers is explored.The study finds that:(i)the wholesale price of power batteries,the PB producer’s process level,the retail price of the vehicle and the profit of the NEV manufacturer decrease as the misreporting factor increases.(ii)When PB manufacturers overstate their process innovation efficiency,their profits increase with the increase of the misrepresentation factor;when they understate their process innovation efficiency,their profits decrease with the decrease of the misrepresentation factor.(iii)Regardless of whether the NEV manufacturer is overconfident,the PB manufacturer’s profits are greatest when it is truthful in reporting information.(iv)The overconfident behaviour of NEV manufacturers can harm the equilibrium strategies and profits of NEV supply chain member firms.In addition,since marketing effort behaviour is more common in reality,the main conclusions are obtained from the benchmark model based on an in-depth investigation of the impact of NEV manufacturers’ marketing efforts on supply chain member firms’ decisions and profits under the rational and overconfident scenarios of NEV manufacturers,as follows:(i)The wholesale price of power batteries,PB producers’ process level,retail price of complete vehicles,marketing level of NEV manufacturers and PB producer’s and NEV manufacturer’s profit decreases with the increase of marketing cost.(ii)Overconfidence of NEV manufacturers negatively affects wholesale power cell prices,PB producers’ process levels and retail vehicle prices,and the level of strategy decreases as the level of overconfidence increases.(iii)The overconfidence behaviour of NEV manufacturers has a partially positive impact on the marketing level,and when the overconfidence level is low,the marketing level varies in the same direction as the overconfidence level.Finally,a cost-sharing contract is designed for PB manufacturers and NEV manufacturers to incentivise PB manufacturers’ process innovation,taking into account the current reality of government subsidy withdrawal in the new energy vehicle industry.The impact of cost-sharing ratios on the decisions and profits of supply chain members under different scenarios is compared and analysed,and the potential of such contracts to coordinate the supply chain is explored.The study shows that:(i)cost-sharing contracts can achieve supply chain coordination under certain conditions.(ii)The wholesale price of power batteries,the retail price of complete vehicles,the process level of PB producers and profits decrease with increasing cost-sharing ratios,regardless of the overconfident behaviour of NEV manufacturers.(iii)When the NEV manufacturer is rational,its profit increases with the increase of cost-sharing ratio;while when the NEV manufacturer is overconfident,its profit decreases with the increase of cost-sharing ratio.(iv)Under cost-sharing contracts,the overconfident behaviour of NEV manufacturers negatively affects the profits of PB producers,but the impact on their own profits is uncertain.The thesis has 42 pictures,15 tables,and 119 references.