Research On Project Risk Management Of FPH International Project Based On Bayesian Network

The "the Belt and Road" initiative has provided a lot of opportunities for Chinese construction enterprises to enter the international market,but the unstable international environment and the different market environments in different countries have brought a lot of risks to the international project contracting of Chinese contractors that are different from those of domestic project contracting.Therefore,it is essential to be familiar with the international project management mode and the risk management of engineering projects in different countries.For international engineering projects,there are many participants,complex contract types and complex risk factors,which increase the difficulty of project risk management for general contractors in China.In order to do a good job in risk management,it is necessary to improve the accuracy of risk assessment and response,as well as the quality of risk management,through risk identification and analysis.By analyzing the risk characteristics of FPH international engineering projects,this thesis proposes a project risk assessment model based on Bayesian networks.Firstly,the initial project risk index list is formed through literature analysis,and the initial project risk index is identified and screened through expert interview and questionnaire,and a risk indicator evaluation system for FPH international engineering projects is further constructed;secondly,investigations are conducted based on correlations between risk factors.Based on this,the risk Bayesian network model of FPH project is established.Then the prior probability and conditional probability values of each risk index are obtained according to small-scale expert interviews and questionnaires.and then learned the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network through Netica software to obtain the posterior probability value of the risk index;according to the results of Bayesian network parameter learning,the reverse reasoning analysis is conducted.Through sensitivity analysis and critical path identification,the key risk indicators of the FPH project are found,and the risk occurrence probability and risk loss degree are integrated to evaluate the project risk;finally,based on the risk assessment results of the FPH international engineering project,targeted risk response strategies and monitoring measures are proposed.This dissertation comprehensively evaluates the risks of FPH projects from two dimensions: probability of risk occurrence and degree of risk loss.It is concluded that the overall risk of FPH projects is at an average level,but the project management risk level is relatively high.Among them,the completion acceptance risk,engineering claim risk,engineering change risk,and bidding decision risk are all at a high risk level.In addition,differences in religious customs,language differences,excessive intervention by property owners,improper performance by subcontractors,insufficient management personnel,incomplete claim records and reports,and the risk level of additional changes by property owners all belong to high positions,and it is necessary to focus on preventing additional risks brought to the project by these factors;Exchange rate fluctuations,improper performance by owners,low bid prices,lack of claim ability,lack of awareness of claim time,counterclaims,project delays,and poor project handover are all in a high-risk state,and timely response strategies need to be proposed.According to the evaluation results,targeted suggestions are put forward for FPH project risk management,which also provides certain reference value for other similar projects of Chinese contractors in Malaysia.