Risk Analysis Of International EPC Project Based On Bayesian Network Method

"Belt and Road" strategy provides a good opportunity for China’s enterprises to go global.However,the turbulent international environment and fierce market competition pose great risks for Chinese contractors to contract international projects.EPC mode integrates design,procurement and construction.It is one of the most mainstream models in the international market and widely used.For overseas EPC construction projects,a large number of participants,a variety of contractual relationships,complex and highly relevant risk factors,all increase the difficulty of the general contractor project risk management.In order to do a good job of risk management,risk identification and analysis is the most critical part of risk management.The level of risk identification and analysis directly affects the accuracy of subsequent risk assessment and response and the quality of risk management.However,the existing research rarely focuses on the risk analysis of overseas EPC projects.This study puts forward a quantitative analysis model of project risk based on the Bayesian Network method,by analyzing the characteristics and cases of overseas EPC project risk.Firstly,identify the initial risk indicators and screen out some risk indicators to form a project risk list,and further build a four level index system of overseas EPC project risk analysis,through literature research,questionnaire survey and WBS-RBS method.Secondly,it evaluates the importance of risk indicators from three risk assessment dimensions: probability of occurrence of risk,degree of risk loss and degree of risk controllability by means of questionnaire survey,and preliminarily evaluates risk indicators by means of improved risk matrix method and entropic weight method,obtaining the prior probability values of different states of risk indicators at all levels.Then,the study applies Bayesian network method(BN)to study Bayesian network structure and parameters,establishes overseas EPC project risk analysis model,and obtains the posteriori probability value of risk index.After that,the study makes a reverse reasoning analysis for the proposed risk analysis model.Through diagnostic analysis,sensitivity analysis and maximum cause chain analysis,the key risk indicators are found respectively.Finally,taking Dubai A.O.Villa Group Project as an example,the reliability of the model application is verified and specific risk prevention and control suggestions are put forward.The research found that:(1)The most likely reason is the country risk when the project is at a high risk level,the most likely reason is the change of market risk when the risk level changes;(2)Personnel overtime restriction,bad government credit,poor legal compliance and poor climatic conditions are the most sensitive risk indicators,which have a significant impact on the project risk level;(3)Political risk and social risk are in the primary position in risk prevention and control,because they have a lot of cause chains,a large number of key cause risk indicators,strong coupling and high average impact intensity.