Research On Risk Management Of GY Biomass Power CHP Engineering Based On Bayesian Network

With the promotion of China’s "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" policy,the country will vigorously develop renewable energy.Due to the many advantages of biomass power CHP engineering compared with traditional power generation engineering,the country has given greater support and encouragement to biomass power CHP engineering,helping to achieve "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals".By the end of 2021,domestic biomass power generation reached 163.7 billion KWH,equivalent to about 20 million tons of standard coal,an increase of 23.45%compared with 2020.This reduced domestic carbon dioxide emissions by 218 million tons.At this stage,the total biomass energy utilization in China has reached 461 million tons,in addition to which there are still 5,839 million tons to be effectively utilized.Although the development of renewable energy in China has been rapid in recent years,compared with traditional energy,the overall scale of renewable energy is still very small,and its proportion in China’s energy structure is still very low.Therefore,biomass power CHP engineering has a good development prospect in the future,and the importance of its risk management research is becoming more and more prominent.In this paper,the risk management process of biomass power CHP engineering is studied comprehensively from the perspective of life cycle.Taking GY biomass power CHP engineering as an example,the risk of decision-making,design,construction,operation and maintenance of biomass power CHP engineering project was analyzed.For the stage of risk identification,this paper optimizes the process of risk identification by using the precedence chart method on the basis of the traditional expert investigation method,so that the risk managers have a more scientific grasp of the importance of risk factors,and also increases the reliability of the establishment of risk evaluation index system.Due to its advantages of simple operation and reliable results,the method has strong practicability in the actual management process.In the stage of risk evaluation,this paper constructed a Bayesian network topology for GY biomass power CHP engineering,and obtained the probability and change degree of various risks in the life cycle through the inference technology of Bayesian network.Using the inherent advantages of Bayesian network in analyzing uncertainty problems,this paper makes qualitative and quantitative analysis on risk problems.The results are visualized through the software to intuitively understand the risk status,so as to facilitate the subsequent overall control of the risk.In the formulation of risk evaluation grade standard,the possibility of risk occurrence and the degree of influence are integrated together.Then,according to the results of the evaluation,the risk response strategy is formulated and the structure of the risk early warning system is proposed to provide guidance for the actual risk monitoring and early warning.Through the study of this paper,a dynamic risk management model based on Bayesian network is provided for biomass power CHP engineering managers at the initial stage of engineering projects,which provides guidance for risk management.When risks occur,empirical data can be input into Bayesian network,and the inference technology of Bayesian network can be used to obtain the lates t risk status results.In this way,managers can dynamically and real-time obtain the information of the overall risk of the project,so that they can adjust the risk response measures in time,reasonably arrange the focus of the project,make full use of the relevant resources,and greatly reduce the cost of human,material and financial resources.