Research On The Evolution Of Public Opinion And Prevention And Control Strategies Of Social Risk Events Of Major Projects

In recent years,along with China’s social and economic development,a series of major projects have been gradually completed,with 165 major projects completed in the 13 th Five-Year Plan and a brand new list of major projects in the 14 th Five-Year Plan to be adopted in 2020,of which 102 projects are listed.The 14 th Five-Year Plan,which will be adopted in 2020,also lists a brand new list of major projects,of which 102 projects are listed.With large investment,long construction period,high technical complexity and many subjects involved,major projects face many risk factors during the whole life cycle of major projects.With the rapid development and popularity of Internet,the public opinion related to social risk events spreads rapidly and if not handled properly,it is easy to cause social conflicts and social risk events,and even endanger social stability.At present,the research on social risks of major projects mainly focuses on risk factor identification,evaluation and control,but lacks research on prevention and control of social risk events from the perspective of public opinion.Therefore,this paper takes public opinion on social risk events of major projects as the research object and focuses on the composition,evolution process and prevention and control strategies of public opinion on social risk events of major projects to explore the prevention and control strategies of public opinion on social risk events of major projects.(1)Combining the two basic concepts of social risk and public opinion of major engineering projects,the basic concept of public opinion of social risk events of major engineering projects is clarified,and the analysis of public opinion of social risk events of major engineering projects is proposed to construct a multi-subject and phased model on the basis of literature review.(2)Identify the constituent elements and interrelationships of public opinion on major engineering social risk events.Based on the case study method and literature analysis method,the evolution process of public opinion of major engineering social risk events is identified as four subjects,and the evolution cycle is divided into three stages,and the interrelationship between the evolution cycle and subjects is analyzed:media and netizens are involved in the formation period of public opinion;government,project participants,netizens and media are involved in the outbreak period of public opinion;government,media and netizens are involved in the decline period of public opinion.(3)To construct the game model of public opinion evolution in major engineering social risk events in stages,calculate the equilibrium point and analyze the stabilization strategy.The game motives of each participating subject in social risk events of major projects are analyzed,and the evolutionary game model is constructed based on the analysis of the components of public opinion on social risk events of major projects: the four-party evolutionary game model among government,project participants,media and netizens in the outbreak period;the three-party evolutionary game model among government,media and netizens in the recession period;the equilibrium point(ESS)and specific stabilization strategies are calculated for each stage.Strategies: the formation period is for the media to release positive remarks and the netizens to adopt and disseminate;the outbreak period is for the government to actively control,the project participants to actively respond,the media to release positive opinions and the netizens to adopt and disseminate,and the decline period is for the government to actively control,the media to release objective reports and the netizens to adopt and disseminate.(4)Simulation analysis and case verification of the evolution model of public opinion on social risk events of major projects based on Matlab platform,and explore the influence of changes in external factors on the evolution process of public opinion.Based on the actual situation of the case,we simulate the three stages of the evolution of public opinion on major engineering social risk events,compare the computer simulation results with the real case situation,and validate the evolution game model.(2)to investigate the prevention and control strategies of public opinion of specific major engineering social risk events.(5)Combining the evolution model and simulation of public opinion on social risk events of major projects,specific prevention and control strategies are proposed.Based on the principles of prevention and control of multiple subjects and timely disclosure of information and active response,the prevention and control strategies of public opinion on social risk events of major projects are proposed from four perspectives: government,project participants,media and netizens,with a view to providing reference basis for the prevention and control of public opinion on social risk events of major projects.