Study On The Generation Mechanism And Control Of Social Risk Of High-speed Rail Projects In China

In recent years,China has accelerated the pace of forming a comprehensive transportation infrastructure network.Among them,the high-speed rail project,as the vanguard of major transportation infrastructure projects,has become a brilliant business card for my country to shine in the world.In 2016,the “High-speed Rail Mid-and LongTerm Master Plan” put forward the grand blueprint of “eight verticals and eight horizontals”,which means that high-speed rail has entered a new era of scale expansion.At the same time,it also ushered in more arduous construction tasks,and a large number of lines have entered the planning stage.In China,high-speed rail projects have brought huge social and economic benefits to the affected regions after they are completed.However,the potential externalities of in its operation stage cause competition for the station during the project planning phase,thus triggering social risks.In fact,for more than ten years,the route selection plan of high-speed rail projects has repeatedly caused disputes in various regions,leading to many serious social conflicts and even mass incidents.Such incidents not only hinder the smooth progress of high-speed rail planning and construction,but also pose a threat to the overall social stability of China.Therefore,it is urgent to clarify the mechanisms responsible for generating the social risk associated with such high-speed rail projects,and build a corresponding social risk control system on this basis.In this context,the paper studies the relevant elements,internal mechanism and control system of the social risk generation of such high-speed rail projects.The main research contents are as follows:First,the social risk list of Chinese high-speed rail projects has been identified.The risks of high-speed rail projects are identified by employing case study method,document research method and content analysis method.First,identify the relevant risks in a number of typical cases,and then conduct knowledge mining and text statistics from relevant literature and social risk assessment policies of major projects.The relevant risks are identified as a supplement to the case study method.An objective and reasonable list of social risk for high-speed rail projects is established,including risk factors,risk events,and risk consequences.Second,a network structure of social risk generation for high-speed rail projects has been constructed.The concept of risk generation mechanism and the conclusions in relevant cases and literatures are used as expert experience,questionnaire survey data are used as machine learning samples,and a risk network is constructed by combining expert experience and machine learning.Some risk causalities are corrected through expert interview method.The causal relationship between risk factors,risk events,and risk factors to risk events in the risk generation process is drawn,forming a complete highspeed rail social risk generation network structure.Thirdly,the whole and part of the risk generation network are simulated and analyzed.From the perspective of risk factors,Bayesian network inference method is employed to derive the key risk factors,sensitive risk factors,and key risk chains in the process of high-speed rail social risks generation.From the perspective of risk events,the evolutionary game model is used to analyze the influencing factors,evolution paths and internal laws of the evolution of risk events in the process of risk generation.Fourth,the social stability risk control system for high-speed rail projects is proposed.Based on the analysis of the high-speed rail social risk generation mechanism,the target system,practice system and guarantee system for the social stability risk control of high-speed rail projects are proposed from the perspective of government departments.This paper conducts an in-depth exploration of the risk generation mechanism of social risks in high-speed rail projects from the perspective of theory and practice,and proposes a risk control system that can guide practice.The research results provide an important reference for relevant government departments and high-speed rail project managers for route decisions and social risk management in the planning stage of highspeed rail projects.More generally,this paper offer significant guidance for socially sustainable decision-making processes for mega projects with massive externalities.