| Progress and risk management problems of expressway construction projects,Has been the general attention of the whole society,Has become a focus and focus of current research,However,with the urbanization and the rapid formation of the metropolitan circle,The progress risk in the construction stage is different from the usual highway,For example,the impact of urban agglomeration degree on construction and demolition and the increase of urban ring water system,And the existing various forms of stereoscopic crossover,The possibility and persistence of traffic disruption around the city,Therefore,the progress of the ring-city expressway has a great impact on the whole city society,How to estimate the construction progress risk size as early as possible,Scientific analysis of the risk factors affecting the construction progress,Complete the construction task as soon as possible,Mitigating the impact on public transport in the surrounding towns and the normal life of the residents,It is the subject content of the construction schedule risk management research.This paper starts with the actual project,combines with relevant theories and basic data,builds a risk evaluation model,and studies the construction progress risk of the project.The specific contents are as follows:First of all,how to estimate the construction progress of the project,if the contract duration is long enough,the risk of construction progress will be meaningless.In this paper,according to the contract duration of the project and the planned duration,estimate the overall construction progress risk by using the PERT method,and the risk that the project cannot be completed on time is large,and further analyze the risk affecting the construction progress.Secondly,the risk influencing factors are not only a vague qualitative understanding,and how to quantitatively analyze these factors is also a problem that needs to be considered in this paper.Through the information collection and questionnaire survey,the factors affecting the risk of the project and classify the risk factor evaluation index of the project to ensure the scientificity,accuracy and operability of the analysis results.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used for analysis,and the weight of the evaluation indicators is determined by tomographic analysis to determine the possibility of risk occurrence in the evaluation set.In the actual process of project construction,people’s consideration of risk factors is usually vague.Using fuzzy mathematical method to establish the model can scientifically calculate the possibility size on the fuzzy evaluation set,and provide scientific basis for project decision-making.Through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the possibility of high progress risk is 34.6%,the high possibility is 30.2%,the medium possibility is 15.1%,the low possibility is 11.3%,and the low possibility is 8.8%.According to the evaluation results and the actual situation of the project,we propose the risk response strategy of the project... |
