Research On Schedule Risk Management Of Municipal Road Project In Jinshan District,Huizhou

Road infrastructure construction is an inevitable product of the vigorous development of our national social economy,and it also promotes the further rapid development of our economy."To get rich,build roads first" not only reflects the importance of road construction,but also reflects the urgency of road construction in the process of economic development.With the continuous acceleration of urbanization,more and more people are pouring into cities.For the first tier and provincial capital cities,the traffic pressure caused by population growth is very obvious.Crowded roads not only occupy more public resources,but also cause a lot of inconvenience to residents’ travel,which restricts the economic development to a certain extent.The unbalanced urban traffic system will certainly affect the development of urban economy,Therefore,whether from the perspective of building roads to get rich or enriching the urban road system to match the urban economic development,rational planning and development of urban roads are inevitable choices.Effective control of the construction progress can make the project better obtain the expected benefits,so the research on the construction progress risk is an issue of great concern to all actors involved in the project.This paper makes an in-depth exploration and evaluation on the construction schedule risk of municipal road projects,in order to make the project managers have a more scientific,objective and operable theoretical basis and practical significance in the specific implementation of project schedule management.For the construction unit,the risk management system of the construction progress of the municipal road project is established by identifying the construction progress risk of the municipal road project,combing the risk factors,and establishing the risk assessment index system,which is of great significance to the management research of the construction progress of the municipal road project.When the road construction project undertaken by the construction unit is completed on schedule or enters the operation stage ahead of schedule,the construction unit can quickly recover funds and construction resources,and put construction tools and instruments into other projects with limited resources,so as to obtain greater benefits,and establish a good corporate reputation and image in the hearts of the government and citizens.If the construction period of municipal road construction project is delayed,it will not only increase the construction cost,but also bear huge losses due to the delay of construction period.More importantly,the reputation of the construction unit will also be affected,resulting in the obstruction of bidding on other projects.Therefore,whether from the government level or the construction enterprise level,a reasonable identification,assessment and measurement of the degree of risk impact has very important practical significance for the smooth completion of municipal road construction,and is an important guarantee for improving the governance level of the government,improving the construction capacity of construction enterprises and promoting regional economic development.Carry out in-depth exploration and evaluation on the construction schedule risk of municipal road projects,in order to make the project managers have more scientific,objective and operable theoretical basis and practical significance in the specific implementation of project schedule management.Taking the municipal road project in Jinshan District of Huizhou as an example,the construction progress risk of the municipal road project is explored and analyzed,and the construction progress risk factors of the municipal road project in Jinshan District of Huizhou are determined by using the literature analysis method,chart comparison analysis method,case analysis method and expert investigation method.The risks are classified according to different sources of risks,and finally five level-1 risk indicators are determined,namely,the owner’s risk,the construction party’s risk,the supervisor’s risk,the subcontractor’s risk and the natural condition risk.Under each level-1 risk indicator,several level-2 risk indicators are determined,and a total of 19 level-2 risk indicators are determined,including policy change risk,construction design change risk,capital chain risk,contract management risk Land acquisition risk,construction safety risk,construction technology application risk,mechanical equipment supply risk,material supply risk,site management risk,supervisor’s personnel quality risk,information communication risk,supervisor’s comprehensive management ability risk,subcontractor’s personnel quality risk,subcontractor’s personnel allocation risk,subcontractor’s duration awareness risk,extreme climate risk,geological adverse conditions risk,and complex operation environment risk,So as to establish Huizhou Jinshan District municipal road project construction progress risk assessment system.According to the questionnaire results of experts on the importance of each risk factor,the index weighting method combining subjectivity and objectivity is adopted,that is,the weight of each risk factor is calculated by using the highly subjective analytic hierarchy process and the highly objective entropy method,and then the combined weight of each risk factor is determined according to the geometric average method.According to the calculation results of analytic hierarchy process,among the first level indicators,the owner has the largest risk weight,followed by the construction party,the supervisor,the subcontractor and natural conditions;The secondary indicators,such as Chinese capital chain,contract management,material supply,the supervisor’s comprehensive management ability,the subcontractor’s personnel ability and quality,and mechanical equipment supply,have a large weight,and the main risks come from the owner and the construction party.According to the calculation results of entropy method: among the first level indicators,the owner has the largest risk weight,followed by the construction party,the supervisor,the subcontractor and the natural conditions;The secondary indicators,such as the risk of Chinese capital chain,contract management,material supply,mechanical equipment supply and the supervisor’s comprehensive management ability,have a large weight,and the main risks come from the owner and the construction party.The calculation results of AHP and entropy method are basically the same,and then the combination weight is calculated according to the formula.This subjective and objective weighting method can avoid the limitation and one sidedness of index weighting caused by using only one method,and increase the scientificity and objectivity of the evaluation results,so as to make the project schedule risk management more systematic and comprehensive and closer to the real situation.The risk degree is divided into four levels: high risk,high risk,medium risk and low risk.Relevant experts of the project are organized to conduct questionnaire survey and score.According to the scoring results of experts,an evaluation matrix is established,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out,and the calculation results are normalized,Following the principle of maximum subordination degree,the comparable comprehensive evaluation results are obtained: the whole project of Jinshan District Municipal Road in Huizhou City is at a high risk level.In the first level indicators,the owner’s risk and the construction party’s risk are at a high risk level,the supervisor’s risk is at a medium risk level,and the subcontractor’s risk and natural condition risk are at a low risk level.According to the results of empirical analysis,feasible control measures are formulated for key risk factors.Focus on the prevention and treatment of these risk factors,take preventive and security measures,reduce risk losses,promote the completion of the project on time,and improve social and economic benefits.Put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the management and control of construction schedule risks of Jinshan District municipal road project and other municipal road projects in Huizhou City,and provide certain reference and basis for reasonably controlling the construction schedule of similar municipal projects and preventing project risks.