Research On Risk Evaluation Of Key Nodes Of Sea Lines Of Communication Based On Combination Weighting-Cloud Matter Element-TOPSIS Theory

With the development of economy and society,the safety of maritime transportation channels critical nodes is crucial to ensure the safe,stable,efficient cargo transportation in the maritime transportation system.Therefore,analyzing and studying the risk influencing factors of maritime transportation channels critical nodes and assessing their risk status has become one of the important topics to ensure the safe transportion of international trade cargoes.In order to reduce the risk of maritime transportation channels critical nodes,ensure their safety,and enrich the theoretical and methodological approaches to risk assessment,this study conducted the following research based on the relevant literature and theories related to risk assessment of maritime transportation channels critical nodes:(1)Construct a comprehensive,systematic,and scientific risk assessment index system for key nodes of sea lanes of communication.In the construction of the risk assessment index system for key nodes of sea lanes,to address the problem that the construction of the risk evaluation index system is not comprehensive,systematic and scientific due to the lack of historical data and other reasons,this study firstly analyzes the risk influencing factors of key nodes of sea lanes of communication from multiple perspectives and constructs a risk identification framework by using the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling(HHM)approach.Secondly,construct a preliminary risk assessment index system of key nodes of sea lanes of communication by reading relevant literature at home and abroad,and conduct an expert survey on the importance of each evaluation index in the preliminary risk index system,and delete the risk indexes with low importance.Finally,analyze the reliability and validity of the expert survey questionnaire to ensure its reliability and accuracy,and then to determine the risk assessment index system of key nodes of sea lanes of communication,to lay a solid foundation for the comprehensive,systematic,and scientific analysis of the current risks of key nodes of sea lanes of communication.(2)Construct a risk assessment model of key nodes of sea lanes of communication based on the combination weighting-cloud matter element-TOPSIS theory.In the risk assessment of key nodes of sea lanes of communication,the empowerment of risk evaluation indicators is inaccurate,and the risk assessment process is ambiguous and uncertain,this thesis firstly uses the improved game theory method to combine and optimize the subjective and objective weights determined by the BWM model and the improved CRITIC model to form an accurate comprehensive weight,which solves the problem of inaccurate weight of risk assessment indicators for key nodes of sea lanes of communication.Secondly,draw a normal cloud map of each index by utilizing the advantages and characteristics of the digital features of the cloud matter-element model,to clearly reflect the correspondence between the data of each index and the membership degree of different levels of clouds,to obtain the membership distribution of each key node at different risk levels,and solve the problems of ambiguity and uncertainty in the risk assessment process of key nodes of sea lanes of communication.Then,accurately compare the risk levels of each key node by using the TOPSIS model for reference.Finally,compare and verify the model,to prove the effectiveness and superiority of the model,and provide a new theoretical and methodological basis for the risk research of key nodes of sea lanes of communication.The results show that the Lombok Strait and the Florida Strait have lower risks and are ranked higher,and the Florida Strait has the lowest risk,followed by the Sunda Strait,Tsugaru Strait,and Taiwan Strait.The Malacca Strait,the Strait of Hormuz,the English Channel,the Strait of Gibraltar,and the Panama Canal have higher risks and are ranked lower,especially the Malacca Strait has the highest risk level.Analyzing the evaluation results and proposing relevant suggestions is beneficial for providing reference value and decision-making basis for maritime stakeholders.