Research On The Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emissions And Emission Reduction Strategy Of Civil Building

China has embarked a new journey of development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period."To achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060"has become a key task in the new era.With the development of urbanization,the carbon emissions of civil buildings account for about 40%of the country’s total.Meanwhile,the construction sector has become a key area of energy conservation and emission reduction due to its low emission reduction cost.Therefore,it is necessary to understand the influencing factors of carbon emission of civil buildings,explore the potential of carbon emission reduction,and explore a more scientific low-carbon development path.Firstly,the accounting scope of carbon emissions is defined in this thesis,including the production stage and operation stage of civil building.The I-O method and IPCC method are used in this thesis to calculate carbon emissions.The result shows that carbon emissions of civil building account for 40%of China’s total carbon emissions.Then,build LMDI decomposition model,the result shows that the population,GDP,the output value of construction are driven factors of carbon emissions,the energy structure,energy intensity,coefficient of carbon emissions are inhibition factors.The result also provides the basis for the system dynamics modeling and forecast.Secondly,based on the results of LMDI model,to construct dynamic system of carbon emissions of civil building,and divided it into five subsystems,including economic,technology,energy,social and policy.The internal action mechanism of each influencing factor is analyzed through causality,and visual test,historical test and run test are carried out to ensure the stability and feasibility.The results show that the model can reflect the actual situation of carbon emissions in the construction field,and can be used as a prediction model of carbon emissions peak in the future.Finally,the development rates of population,GDP,output value of tertiary industry,output value of construction industry,urbanization development,energy structure and investment in science and technology are set under three development modes of low speed,baseline and high speed,and nine development scenarios are set to simulate the carbon emissions of civil buildings from 2020 to 2050.The results show that LD₂ scenario is an optimal path for civil buildings to achieve carbon peak before 2030.Finally,combined with the system dynamics model and prediction results,this paper proposes a low-carbon economic development path for civil buildings,and puts forward suggestions from the aspects of technological progress,market regulation,building energy efficiency improvement and social energy conservation.