Spatial And Temporal Situation Of Land-use Carbon Emissions In The Yellow River Basin And Influencing Factors

Since the middle of the 20 th century,the rapid development of social economy and more frequent human activities have caused a series of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide to continue to rise in the atmosphere,and thus brought a series of climate changes that are not conducive to human survival.The grand goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" proposed by China has pointed out the direction for the development of China and even the world in the new era.In recent years,various research results have shown that land use/cover change has an important impact on global climate change and the carbon cycle,and has become another major source of carbon emissions after energy consumption.As an important industrial and agricultural base and ecological protection barrier in China,the Yellow River Basin is of great strategic significance.At the same time,due to its large span,the different development levels of different provinces in the river basin,and the constraints of objective factors such as technical level and policy willingness,it is facing huge pressure to reduce emissions,and urgently needs relevant theories and data support.To this end,this study closely focuses on the main line of "land use carbon emissions-spatiotemporal bureau-influencing factors",takes the Yellow River Basin flowing through 95 prefecture-level cities in eight provinces as the research unit,and grasps the land use change law of the Yellow River Basin from2000 to 2020 through the analysis of land use status,land use dynamics and land use transfer matrix.The emission coefficient estimation model was constructed to calculate the amount of land use carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin in the past 20 years,and the spatial correlation was studied by spatial autocorrelation analysis.The spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression(GTWR)model was used to explore the influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin from six aspects,including population size and economic development,so as to provide a theoretical basis and data support for energy conservation,emission reduction and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.The main findings are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the land use structure of the Yellow River Basin changed drastically in time and space.In terms of the quantity of land use,the number of forest land,grassland,water area and construction land in the river basin increased;Cultivated land,unused land and other land types have decreased.In terms of land use change,the dynamics of cultivated land and unused land were negative,and the dynamics of construction land and water area were positive,among which the growth rate of construction land area was the fastest,and the land use dynamics of forest land and grassland showed slight fluctuations,and the overall stability was relatively stable.In terms of land use transfer,cultivated land is mainly transformed into construction land and grassland,and there is mutual transformation between forest land,grassland,water area and unused land.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the spatial and temporal differences of land use carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin were large.On the whole,the carbon emissions of land use in the Yellow River Basin showed a continuous growth trend,and showed a certain stage in the growth rate,mainly including two stages: rapid growth and stable development.The areas with heavy emissions of land use carbon emissions were mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,while the light and negative emission areas were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the river basin,showing a spatial pattern of "high in the Middle East and low in the northwest".In terms of spatial correlation,land use carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed a strong positive correlation in space,and the global spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I value first increased and then decreased.Local spatial autocorrelation shows that the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin are mainly high-value agglomeration areas of land use carbon emissions,and low-value agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the upper reaches of the basin.(3)From 2000 to 2020,there were various factors influencing carbon emissions from land use in the Yellow River Basin.The influence of various influencing factors on the change of land use carbon emissions fluctuated.Population size has the effect of first suppressing and then stimulating land use carbon emissions,with high upstream and low downstream impact coefficients.The level of economic development has an obvious but gradually weakening positive driving effect on land use carbon emissions,and the spatial distribution shows the characteristics of high middle and lower reaches and low upstream distribution.Industrial structure plays a positive role in stimulating land use carbon emissions in each year,but this role gradually weakens and regional differences gradually deepen over time.The influence coefficient of social development level on cities in the Yellow River Basin was negative and then positive,showing a strong positive incentive effect on the whole,and the spatial difference gradually increased.Technological progress has a significant positive incentive effect on land use carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,and the spatial difference first increases and then decreases.The positive driving effect of land use structure on land use carbon emissions gradually decreased,and regional differences gradually increased.Based on the above research results,policy suggestions are put forward for the development of the Yellow River Basin from the perspectives of population size,industrial structure,land use structure and regional differences,aiming to provide a theoretical basis for the smooth realization of the "dual carbon" goal and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin,and put forward prospects for future research.