Research On The Carbon Emission Prediction Of Municipal Solid Waste Volume In Tianjin Based On GRA-BiLSTM Model

With the rapid growth of municipal solid waste production,unreasonable treatment of solid waste has become an important source of greenhouse gas emissions,which is becoming a global challenge.In order to promote the sustainable development of municipal solid waste treatment methods in Tianjin,it is of great significance for Tianjin municipal management department to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by accurately predicting the volume of municipal solid waste removal,calculating the carbon emission of municipal solid waste and formulating the development plan for municipal solid waste treatment.Firstly,the paper analyzes 14 factors affecting the volume of household garbage in Tianjin from three aspects: economy,society and population.The grey relational degree method is used to select six major indicators,namely the number of public transport vehicles operating regional GDP per capita urban disposable income per capita consumption expenditure urban population density permanent resident population,and analyze the relationship between the major indicators and the volume of household garbage removal.Secondly,nine prediction models were constructed according to deep learning network models such as LSTM,GRU and BiLSTM.MAE,RMSE and MAPE of the six models were compared to evaluate the prediction performance of each model.According to the prediction results of the model,the GRA-BiLSTM combined model has the highest prediction accuracy and the error value MAPE is 3.78%,which is the optimal model for predicting the volume of household garbage in Tianjin.Finally,the municipal solid waste volume of Tianjin in 2021-2035 was predicted by the optimal model,and the greenhouse gas emissions of municipal solid waste in2021-2035 were calculated by setting two different policy scenarios.The greenhouse gas emissions of municipal solid waste under the two scenarios were compared and analyzed.According to the sensitivity analysis results,the impact of the two policies on the carbon emission reduction potential was studied.The scenario policy suitable for the disposal of household garbage in Tianjin in the future is put forward.