Research On The Prediction Of Municipal Solid Waste Volume And Estimation Of Landfill Area In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

With the rapid economic development and rapid urbanization,a large number of people are coalescing in the city,thus causing the rapid growth of domestic waste removal in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and the pressure of urban domestic waste removal is gradually increasing.In order to guarantee people’s healthy life and protect the ecological environment,the planning and construction requirements of domestic landfill facilities are becoming more and more standardized.At the same time,the rationalized construction of domestic waste treatment facilities depends on the accurate prediction of domestic waste removal volume,therefore,the accurate prediction of domestic waste removal volume is the basis for the city management department to reasonably calculate the demand of landfill area and standardize the construction of domestic waste treatment facilities,which is of great significance to improve the efficiency of domestic waste treatment and realize the fine management of the city.Firstly,in view of the current situation of municipal solid waste disposal capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the complex influence of economic,social and demographic fields,the gray correlation degree analysis method is introduced by reading the literature,which is borrowed to calculate the correlation degree of the influencing factors of municipal solid waste in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and five key influencing factors of street removal area,per capita consumption expenditure,per capita disposable income,resident population and household registration number are screened out.At the same time,this paper constructs prediction models based on SVR,LSTM,GRU and BiLSTM for comparison experiments,and the results show that the GRA-BiLSTM model is the optimal model for predicting the municipal solid waste volume in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.Secondly,based on the optimal prediction model to set different growth scenarios for domestic waste removal in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and combined with the forecast results to measure the demand for domestic landfill area,the analysis of the existing landfill area can meet the demand for urban development in the long term to 2035.Finally,combined with the predicted results of municipal solid waste in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the future problems of municipal solid waste disposal still faced in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are sorted out,and strategies are proposed to promote the source management of municipal solid waste,improve the capacity of municipal solid waste disposal and improve the measures of municipal solid waste landfill remediation,which provide reference for the urban management departments in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.