| Hazardous chemicals(referred to as "hazardous chemicals")face various risks in production,storage,transportation,operation,waste disposal and other stages due to their own dangerous characteristics.In recent years,hazardous chemical transportation accidents in China have occurred frequently,which have brought adverse effects to individuals and society,caused major losses to the economy,and also caused damage to the environmental ecosystem that is difficult to recover.In the process of transportation,hazardous chemicals have the characteristics of high risk,strong harmfulness and wide impact range.How to reasonably transport hazardous chemicals to designated locations has also become a hot issue in current research.This paper conducts in-depth research from the risk analysis of hazardous chemicals in the process of road transportation,and studies the optimization of hazardous chemical road transportation routes according to the results of risk classification,the specific research content is as follows:(1)Firstly,this paper analyzes the advantages,disadvantages and scope of application of the stamp model and the HFACS model,and constructs a new framework,new theory and new method suitable for the research of hazardous chemical road transport accidents according to the complexity and variability of risks in hazardous chemical road transport.To eliminate the isolation of single model analysis accidents,the advantages of modular classification of risk factors in HFACS model are integrated into the hierarchical safety control system of STAMP model,and the STAMP-HFACS analysis framework for hazardous chemical road transport accidents is constructed,and a STAMP-HFACS hybrid model is proposed.The STAMP-HFACS hybrid model was used to analyze the collected sample of 142 accident reports,and the systemic risk factor categories were divided into 7 categories,and 66 specific risk factors were analyzed.Based on the rough set theory,the importance of risk factor attributes is analyzed,the main risk factors in hazardous chemical road transportation are vehicle failure,and the secondary risk factors are the physical and chemical properties of hazardous chemicals,and the risk factors of bad weather and road damage,driver speeding and fatigue driving and supervisors’ negligence are not the main factors leading to accidents.(2)Secondly,this paper introduces the advantages and disadvantages of ten commonly used risk measurement models,and selects improved traditional measurement models to provide a basis for establishing new risk models.When determining the accident rate and leakage of hazardous chemical road transport,a probability model of hazardous chemical road transport accident based on risk correction coefficient is proposed.Through the analysis of the consequences of road transport accidents of hazardous chemicals,the population impact risk model,environmental impact risk model and economic loss risk model were established.By adjusting the accident consequence model by using emergency rescue capability as a correction factor,the risk measurement model of road transport of hazardous chemicals was finally formed.(3)Then,the optimization evaluation index system of road transportation routes of hazardous chemicals is constructed,and in order to scientifically determine the weight of the index,the method of game theory is adopted to couple the subjective analytic hierarchy method and the objective entropy weight method to solve the problem of unreasonable weight distribution caused by the single empowerment method.A single-objective path optimization model based on Dijkstra algorithm and a multi-objective path optimization solution model based on improved grey correlation analysis are established.(4)Finally,combined with the examples,the established hazardous chemical road transport risk measurement model and route optimization model are used to analyze the examples,select the optimal path,and verify the scientificity,effectiveness and feasibility of the improved grey correlation analysis method. |
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