Research On Risk Management For PPP Waste-to-energy Incineration Projects

With the gradual increase of urbanization rate and urban population,the amount of urban domestic garbage in China is also increasing at a rapid rate.The waste-to-energy incineration technology,which has the advantages of good volume reduction effect,low secondary pollution and utilization of waste incineration waste heat,effectively alleviates the contradiction between the increasing waste disposal demand and the green development of the city,and is vigorously promoted by the government.In order to reduce the government’s financial pressure and improve the management level and service efficiency of waste incineration power generation industry,the state has successively issued a series of policies to require waste-to-energy incineration projects to fully adopt PPP mode.However,in actual operation,the characteristics of waste-to-energy incineration PPP project,such as long concession period,many participants and large financing amount,lead to more complex and changeable risks.In addition,there is a lack of clear understanding of the risk of waste-to-energy incineration project in the industry,which leads to low efficiency of risk management,resulting in project delay or even failure.Therefore,how to scientifically and effectively manage the risk of waste-to-energy incineration PPP project has become the key to the success of the project.Based on this,taking the risk factors of waste-to-energy incineration PPP project as the research object and based on the risk management theory and the whole life cycle theory,this paper explores the methods of risk identification,evaluation and control of waste-to-energy incineration PPP project from the multi-agent perspective,so as to provide scientific and reasonable theoretical support for the risk management of waste-to-energy incineration PPP project.Firstly,53 common risks were identified through literature analysis,and 5personalized risk factors(whether power generation can be connected to the grid,pipe network laying,accuracy of power generation assessment,waste supply and waste calorific value)were identified through case analysis.On this basis,considering that most of the risks preliminarily identified are qualitative indicators and in the state of "information chaos",the main risk factors were identified through the blind number theory which can express and process a variety of uncertain information,including randomness,fuzziness,gray and so on.And the main risk factors were classified and summarized into the risk evaluation index system of waste-to-energy incineration PPP project including 7 primary risk indicators and 27 secondary indicators through causal analysis.Secondly,based on the characteristics of fuzziness,randomness and relevance of indicators,the subjective weight was calculated through the fuzzy DEMATEL method which can deal with the fuzziness of information and reflect the correlation between indicators,the objective weight was calculated through the improved critical method which can reflect the correlation and difference between indicators,and the combined weight was calculated through the multiplication normalization method.In addition,the risk of a waste-to-energy incineration PPP project was systematically evaluated through the improved evidence theory which can deal with fuzziness,randomness and conflict,and it was found that the risk of the project was at a high level,which was basically consistent with the actual situation,which verified the effectiveness of the risk evaluation model based on the combined weighting-improved evidence theory.Finally,based on the results of risk assessment of an example,it is found that there are 10 risk factors(financing risk,environmental protection risk,delay of approval risk,etc.)that need to be taken risk control measures.From the perspective of how to better prevent risk events,the risk control measures that the government,the project company,the general contractor,etc.should take were put forward:broadening financing channels,strictly implementing the tail gas treatment standard,simplifying the approval process,etc.,which would help improve the risk management efficiency of waste-to-energy incineration PPP project and ensure the healthy development of waste-to-energy incineration industry.