Prediction Of Peak Carbon Emissions From Energy Consumption In Northwest China And Financial Constraints

Since the 21st century,the problem of the deterioration of the climate environment has become increasingly prominent,and reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become a major issue facing all countries.With the increasing demand for emissions reduction in the international community,China,as the world’s largest CO₂ emitter,made a commitment to the world in 2020:“China’s CO₂ emissions will strive to reach the peak by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060."The northwest region is the ma in producing area of China’s fossil energy,and the carbon emission reduction process of its energy consumption has an important impact on China’s carbon peak commitment.Finance,as the core of the modern market economy,can provide financial support for the development of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies and the upgrading of industrial structure.It is an important support for the development of a green economy and the development of a low-carbon economy.Based on this,this article takes Northwest China as the research object,analyzes the impact of financial development in the region on energy consumption carbon emissions,and predicts the peak of energy consumption carbon emissions in the region.The purpose is to explore how to use financial means to restrain energy consumption carbon emissions and promote The process of carbon emission reduction in Northwest China will enable it to achieve carbon peak as soon as possible,and explore an effective financial constraint path for carbon emission reduction in other regions of my country.First of all,based on the calculation of the energy carbon emission panel data of the five northwestern provinces and regions from 2000 to 2018,this paper explores the impact of financial development in the northwest region on energy consumption carbon e missions by constructing an extended STIRPAT model.From the perspective of the scale,efficiency and structure of development,the current financial development in Northwest China will promote the growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption.（2）The economic growth of Northwest China has an"inverted U-shaped"relationship with carbon emissions from energy consumption;the energy structure of Northwest China is positively correlated with carbon emissions from energy consumption;the industrial structure and trade openness in Northwest China have no significant impact on carbon emissions from energy consumption.Secondly,this paper constructs an energy consumption carbon emission prediction model based on the BP artificial neural network,combined with a scenario analysis method,to simulate the energy consumption carbon emission trend of Northwest China from 2019 to 2030.The forecast results show that carbon emissions from energy consumption in Northwest China can achieve the peak carbon emissions target in2030,but carbon emissions reduction governance needs to be strengthened.Among them,the energy consumption carbon emissions under the L1 scenario will peak at the earliest time and will reach the peak in 2025,and the energy consumption carbon emissions under the peak will be 570.7772 million tons;under the M1 scenario,the energy consumption carbon emissions in the northwest region will reach the peak in 2028.It is 581,079,500 tons;the M1 scenario is a more suitable development model for Northwest China.Finally,based on the above analysis,from the government and the financial market,the policy recommendations for financial constraints on energy consumption carbon emissions in Northwest China are proposed.From the perspective of financial constraints,policymakers will scientifically formulate mid-to long-term energy-saving and emission reduction strategies in Northwest China,and achieve carbon emissions at an early date.The peak provides an important reference.