Temporal And Spatial Evolution Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions From China’s Logistics Industry

With the emergence of "new economy and new formats",especially the requirement of "dual circulation" in domestic and international economy,China’s logistics industry has developed rapidly and has become a pillar industry of national economic development.The logistics industry is also an industry with high energy consumption.According to the China Energy Statistical Yearbook(2021),the energy consumption of the logistics industry ranks fourth in the total energy consumption of China’s sub industries,and the carbon emissions of China’s logistics industry are also continuously increasing.Therefore,it is of great significance for China to achieve the goal of "carbon peak,carbon neutrality" by systematically studying the development status of carbon emissions in China’s logistics industry and exploring specific carbon reduction measures in the logistics industry.The main content of this article is as follows:(1)Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution trend of China and regional logistics industry.Based on the analysis of the current situation of the logistics industry,the "top-down" method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of China’s logistics industry.At the same time,the evolution trend of carbon emissions in China and regional logistics industry is explored from two dimensions: time characteristic analysis,selecting two indicators of carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity in the logistics industry,and analyzing their temporal variation trend during the research period;In spatial feature analysis,spatial autocorrelation models are used to analyze whether there is spatial correlation and agglomeration phenomenon in the overall carbon emissions of the logistics industry,and local spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to explore spatial differences between regions.(2)Analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s logistics industry.The LMDI decomposition method is used to build the factor decomposition model of carbon emissions in the logistics industry,which is divided into six influencing factors: carbon emission coefficient,energy structure,energy intensity,logistics industry output,economic development and population size.On the basis of standardizing data processing,explore the direction and contribution of various influencing factors on carbon emissions in the logistics industry.(3)Prediction of carbon emissions and analysis of carbon reduction strategies in China’s logistics industry.Establish a prediction model for carbon emissions in the logistics industry using the STIRPAT model.According to the decomposition results of influencing factors,three variables of logistics industry output,energy intensity and energy structure are selected,and three scenarios are set: basic scenario,low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario.The peak time of logistics industry carbon emissions under different scenarios is explored by regulating the change speed of variables,and reasonable carbon reduction strategies are proposed according to the prediction results.Through a systematic analysis of carbon emissions from the logistics industry and research on carbon reduction strategies,the conclusions are as follows:(1)China’s logistics industry’s carbon emissions continue to grow,maintaining a positive spatial correlation overall,showing a distribution of "East>West>Central>Northeast";The difference in carbon emissions between the "high high" and "low" clustering regions of regional logistics industry is relatively small,and the spatial clustering characteristics are obvious.(2)The cumulative effects of economic development,population size and energy intensity on logistics carbon emissions are all positive driving forces.Among them,economic development is the main driving factor for the increase of logistics carbon emissions.The output of logistics industry and energy structure all inhibit the increase of logistics carbon emissions.(3)In the basic scenario,there was no peak in the logistics industry.In the low-carbon scenario and the strengthened low-carbon scenario,the carbon emissions of the logistics industry reached their peak in 2029 and 2026,respectively,and then gradually decreased.