Research On The Evaluation Model Of Urban Community Emergency Response Capability Based On Fuzzy Risk Analysi

This paper relies on the Yunnan Provincial Government’s decision-making consulting research project "Research on Emergency Response Capacity Improvement of Grassroots Communities Facing Emergencies"(Project No.: ZFKKT-2020-083),and the sub-project "Research on Production Process and Disaster Evolution,Safety Monitoring and Early Warning Technology Research" of Yunnan Provincial Key R&D Program "Research on Key Technologies for Hazardous Air Control in Plateau Areas"(Project No.: 202003AC100002).Communities are at the forefront of preventing and responding to public emergencies,and strengthening community emergency response capacity building will help promote urban and rural public safety and the modernization of national governance systems and governance capabilities.However,at present,the current situation of emergency management in China is grim,and the new crown pneumonia epidemic has exposed problems such as weak community emergency management capabilities,low residents’ safety awareness and emergency literacy,and insufficient emergency material reserves.Therefore,it is urgent to carry out community emergency response capacity assessment to provide theoretical support for improving emergency response capacity.In this paper,we first identify the risk of accidents in urban communities,count the accident data of urban communities,including accident types,accident characteristics,casualties,property losses,etc.,sort out and analyze the data,find out the mechanism of highincidence typical accidents,and identify various risk factors.Based on fuzzy set theory,Bowtie model,accident tree analysis method and event tree analysis method,a fuzzy Bow-tie model of typical accidents in urban communities is constructed,and the probability of occurrence and failure of risk factors is calculated to determine community risk factors by taking a certain community as the object.Secondly,combined with the characteristics of systematization,optimization and integration of the three-dimensional structure of Hall,the emergency response capacity of urban communities is taken as the analysis object,and the three-dimensional structure of Hall is improved.Based on normative standards,predecessor literature,risk analysis,etc.,the evaluation indicators were selected to determine the initial index system of urban community emergency response capacity.After three research methods: discussion and exchange,field exploration and questionnaire survey,the reliability and validity of the questionnaire were analyzed and the evaluation indicators were optimized,and the final urban community emergency response capacity evaluation index system was determined.Finally,the index weighting method is compared and selected,the subjective weight is calculated by the ordinal relationship method,and the objective weight is calculated by the entropy weight method,and the comprehensive weight of the index is determined by combining the weighting.Based on the cloud model theory,the cloud digital characteristics and cloud model algorithm are used to construct a cloud model for urban community emergency response capacity assessment,and determine the evaluation standard cloud,evaluation index cloud and evaluation comprehensive cloud.Carry out empirical application in the community,integrate the results of community risk analysis and emergency response capacity assessment,and propose risk management and control measures and emergency response capacity improvement measures in urban communities.