Carbon Emission Growth Factor Decomposition And Carbon Tax Policy Effect Simulation Based On CGE Model In Shanxi Province

At present,the economic and social problems caused by climate change have become serious challenges that all mankind must address together.The proposal of the "dual carbon" target shows that China has always attached great importance to ecological and environmental issues,and fully demonstrates its responsibility as a major country in addressing climate change.However,the lack of marketization of emission reduction policies and the "one-size-fits-all" form of policy formulation have led to prominent problems such as inter-regional carbon transfer and poor emission reduction effects.Therefore,it is more targeted and feasible to conduct research on driving factors and control strategies for carbon emission growth in specific regions.Shanxi Province as a typical coal resource-based regions,excess carbon dioxide emissions has become the norm,how to achieve sustainable and healthy economic development on the basis of increasing energy conservation and emission reduction is an urgent problem to be solved in the process of energy transformation and development in resource-based regions such as Shanxi Province.At the same time,it is necessary to implement the opinions and spirit of the central government on carrying out the energy revolution reform in Shanxi,solve the economic development problems of resource-based regions on the coordinate of the new era,realize the historic leap from "coal leader" to "pacesman",and drive the highquality transformation and development of the province.Based on this,this paper will take Shanxi Province as an example,give full play to the advantages of policy system "forerunner",and deeply explore the driving factors and control strategy policy simulation of carbon emission growth in Shanxi Province.Firstly,the basic situation of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province was analyzed from the perspective of the overall level and industrial structure,and the existing problems and internal causes of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province were comprehensively evaluated,and the driving factors and contribution degree of carbon emissions growth were identified by LMDI index decomposition method.Then,in terms of control strategy research,this paper chooses carbon tax as the policy means,through the research of carbon tax policies at home and abroad,applies pigouvian tax principle,externality and public goods and other relevant theories,starting from the driving factors of carbon emissions,explores the inhibitory mechanism of carbon tax policy,and analyze the transmission mechanism of emission reduction effect,economic effect and income distribution effect brought by carbon tax policy.On the basis of the above,a static CGE model is constructed to analyze the effects of carbon tax policies and provide corresponding policy suggestions for the introduction of carbon tax policies and auxiliary measures.The results show that: in the decomposition of driving factors,the expansion of economic scale is the primary influential factor,the improvement of energy efficiency is the core force to control the growth of carbon emissions,and the optimization of energy structure and industrial structure has a negative driving effect on carbon emissions in Shanxi Province,but the influence degree is relatively small.Control strategy,a carbon tax policy is to improve the existing environment of Shanxi Province so as to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide a leapfrog development path,it not only inhibits the original energy structure of "focusing on high-carbon energy consumption" and the industrial structure of "heavy on secondary production,light on primary production and low on tertiary production",but also contributes to the gradual improvement of energy efficiency.However,it also has a negative impact on the economic growth of Shanxi Province and is regressive in the income distribution effect of urban and rural residents.Therefore,in the early stage of carbon tax policy formulation,the government should fully weigh the advantages and disadvantages among economic development,social welfare and emission reduction,adopt a gradual way to set the tax rate,and formulate reasonable compensation measures to take into account the efficiency and fairness of the policy,so as to achieve the benign development of carbon tax policy.First of all,it is necessary to improve the existing shortcomings and realize that accelerating the improvement of energy efficiency,upgrading of industrial structure and optimization of energy structure is an important starting point for Shanxi Province to carry out extensive and in-depth carbon emission reduction actions.Secondly,we should strive to be the first demonstrator of carbon tax,and establish an effective carbon tax system from the aspects of tax mode,coverage,tax rate and tax destination.Thirdly,we should uphold the principle of "peopleoriented",construct compensation mechanism,and highlight the consideration and unity of efficiency and fairness of carbon tax policy.Finally,it is necessary to strengthen forward-looking thinking,scientifically establish the linkage mechanism of electricity market,carbon tax and carbon market,highlight the financial properties of traded products,and promote the coordinated development of a package of policy tools.