Study On Carbon Emission Simulation Of Civil Construction Operation Period In Jilin Province Based On LEAP

Due to the climate change conference in Paris 2015 which passed the new agreement,and the agreement pointed out that all the parties should strengthen the global response due to the threat of climate change,which control the global average temperature within 1.5-2 degrees than the pre-industrial levels.The world will reach the carbon emission peak as soon as possible,then realize net zero carbon emissions in the second half of the century.Under the background of the global climate change,as a developing country,China also occupied the most carbon emissions in the world,so China should be responsible for energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction.According to the related statistics,industrial,transportation and building have the most energy consumption in China,what's more,there is a growing number of energy consumption for building,which accounted for 41% of the total energy consumption,as well as carbon emissions.Therefore buildings are considered to have the greatest potential in energy saving and emission reduction,which would be the effective way to control the global climate change.Based on this,this research take the basis of summarizing the research progress both at home and abroad,then we use a LEAP(long-term energy replacement planning system)model which combined with scenario analysis,furthermore we set four scenarios,which included the benchmark scenario,energy-savings scenario,energy saving-low carbon scenario and low-carbon scenario,and we take Jilin province as a example to forecast the carbon emissions of the civil construction during the operation period.The conclusions show that low carbon scenario reach the peak firstly,with the peak time of the year in 2026,followed by energy saving-low carbon scenario,with the peak time of the year in 2030,and then saving energy scenario,with the peak time of the year in 2037,the last is the benchmark scenario,with the peak time of the year in 2040,and the peak value vary between 47.50 Mt-58.17 MtCO2.On the basis of this,in order to find the effective way of civil construction carbon reduction,this study change building area,building energy saving standards and change of the pattern three factors respectively,which to explore its influence on carbon emissions,according to the results,building area not only influence carbon emissions peak value but also the peak time,however building energy saving standards and change of the pattern can only change the peak value,which does not affect the peak time.Therefore,we can realize carbon emissions reduction through controlling the building area,building energy saving standards and change of the pattern.