Prediction Of China’s Natural Gas Imports Based On GA-ELM Model

The extensive use of fossil energy makes global warming,pollution emissions and other environmental problems increasingly prominent,and energy problems have gradually become a bottleneck factor affecting the economic and social development of countries all over the world.In order to solve these problems,many countries in the world are actively promoting the low-carbon transformation of energy structure.Due to the influence of resource endowment and industrial development,coal has long occupied a dominant position in China’s energy consumption structure,which has brought many energy and environmental problems to China’s development.In order to get rid of the influence of high-carbon energy consumption structure,China is gradually increasing the transformation of energy consumption structure and promoting the low-carbon energy consumption structure.Natural gas has the characteristics of clean and pollution-free combustion,high thermal efficiency and good stability.Before the application of new energy is mature,natural gas plays an important role in the transition of energy structure.In recent years,the domestic demand for natural gas has grown rapidly.In2019,China’s imported natural gas will reach 134.6 billion cubic meters,accounting for 43%of the domestic natural gas consumption in that year.Imported natural gas accounts for a large proportion of domestic natural gas consumption,so the prediction of China’s future natural gas imports based on different scenarios can provide an important reference for the healthy and orderly development of China’s natural gas industry,which has important practical significance.Based on the current situation of natural gas import,the following research work is carried out:(1)From the perspective of domestic demand of natural gas and safety of natural gas import,the research status at home and abroad is summarized.On this basis,the research content and research ideas of this paper are proposed,and the related theories and research methods of natural gas prediction are summarized,and the research method of this paper is selected to lay the foundation for the future prediction.selected to lay the foundation for the future prediction.(2)Based on the data of China’s natural gas import from 2006 to 2018,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s natural gas import,and determines that economic development factors,population factors,energy consumption intensity,energy consumption structure,per capita domestic natural gas consumption,geopolitics and external dependence are the factors influencing the import of natural gas.Based on the stochastic forest algorithm model and ga-elm model,the evaluation model and scenario prediction model of China’s natural gas import volume are constructed.(3)Based on the scenario analysis method,the future development scenarios of influencing factors are set as high-level scenario,benchmark scenario and low-level scenario,and ga-elm model is used to predict China’s natural gas import volume under different scenarios from 2021 to 2035.The importance ranking results of stochastic forest algorithm show that the importance of each factor to the import of natural gas is above 0.1,among which economic and population factors are the most important.The scenario forecast results show that under the high benchmark scenario,the benchmark scenario and the low-level scenario,the peak values will reach in 2035,with the peak values of 278.2,263.8 and 376.8 billion cubic meters respectively.Finally,based on the above analysis results,the paper puts forward relevant suggestions and measures for the reasonable development of China’s natural gas import industry.